i found surfline to be more accurate in the past but i think swell info has been about right on, surfline always over estimates swell size, it will say 10ft on offshore buoy and they will predict 10ft on the beach...only in a perfect world... hey dawn what is the hilton head island forecast give us a screen of that.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 I'm not putting in for the day off just yet. Still.....
Swellinfo sees it. If you click 180 out, you can see the 6-9foot areas of swell starting to come in. You can also see a slight increase in the graph data above going into monday night, building waist to chest into the nightfall...
Agree...MSW is garbage. At least for the mid Atlantic. The best part of MSW is their "Probability" column where they tell you how confident you should be in their forecast. Right now their forecast probability is "100%" every day this week through Friday, and for this possible tropical swell next tuesday their probability is 90%. Sure - 90% chance its correct a week out!
And I know this is swell info blasphemy, but a brother likes to look at the 10 day forecast every now and again... Even the Euro's are seeing something brewing. Very rare to get three stars on there. But at any rate, I am sure the size will increase forecast wise, but you can see solid swell for about 72 hours on the radar.
The only good thing that MSW was every good for, that I used, was the historical data. You can question the authenticity, but it averages 10 years of data and will tell you exactly how much swell, and when, a certain region should expect. I used that a lot when I was researching where to move on the EC. Florida, Jersey, OBX and Delmarva are all at the top of the list, but not much different than the worst places. Down here, you can expect something "ridable", which is defined by over 3feet in wave height by more than 6 seconds about 22% of the time, to OBX's 32%, to Jersey's 27% to OC MDs 25%.... So, that was a pretty cool tool, and it doesn't account for power and a lot of other things, but it is a historical model on swell events of the past, and it was pretty spot on as far as indicating how much time in the water you will have the opportunity for.
me likes the probability of MSW and 10 day... Me also likes you guys (and betty) so i come here more. rough guide I use MSW and when its beginning to countdown, SI. .... so hype train or what?
Great clip bro. He was very thorough and there are still a handful of factors up in the air, no pun intended! Let's hope TS BelMar gets announced in the next day and then El Hurican de BelMar thereafter. zach, just like the days prior to Arty, I'll be down in the Mid-Atlantic again. This time, So. Jerz and Philly area. I'm all wrapped up with my commitments early afternoon Sunday. I'd guess that you'd advise me to head to OBX from there? If things went best-case scenario, perhaps I could chase this swell all the way up the grid and hit it in 5 different places. Baby steps though, and I'll be stoked for a single cane sesh.
I'm on call starting tomorrow and running until 8/15 so you guys are guaranteed to get a good swell not only for this one, but at least one more before then. I wouldn't plan on anything after 8/15 though, it will be back to 1.7 at 8secs. You're welcome...
Based on the results last time, Delmarva or Jersey. I guess it's safe to say OBX is always a crap shoot and things can go horribly wrong, horribly fast there. Jersey cause you are close.
Thanks brah, and I was thinking the same on the roll of the dice in OBX. Rhodey looks like it will get the hype train more than Delmarva or Jerz, at least from the current models. So much can change as that beast is headed north anyway. I'm not against kicking it in Newport again next week and getting stoked to the gills.
Delmarva and Jersey have many of the attributes that OBX has to take in these swells very nicely. As you move north, its a little trickier. Delmarva and Jers are parked right at the thing and have a lot of deep water not too far off the coast.
No doubt, I was talking more of the swell not reaching up there on what models show so far. I'm guessing that'll change if the hype train comes to fruition. btw bro did you really refer to it as Hurricane BelMar at your local break? That's excellent. FLY A BANNER FOR IMPENDING TS BELMAR SWELL
Not sure if iam the only one, but I find these long range forecast mentally draining....one day, it looks good...next day, it's not looking promising only to go back to being promising. Then when the swell is looking promising, then you have to hope the winds cooperate.
Haha right on coop, but is it any different than dealing with the emotional inconsistency of wahines? This is why I bought the Carver, exactly a year ago. Boom.
From flhurricane.com : (it sounds like he is describing surfing guess waves are waves, no matter what kind of wave (energy) we are talking about: " Current JSL and Funktop enhancements show very limited if any signs of Thunderstorms in or around 93L. First visible satellite photo is half IR half VIS but is does show the system maintaining structure and low to mid level organization. Moving westward at 10-15 knots. I question whether 93L is running on the periphery of the Total Precipitable Water envelope that it originated from. Seems to be lagging the pouch of the wave. Well behind the crest of the wave and near the trailing wave trough. My perception at the current time. Weak waves have been known to transverse the Lower Lesser Antilles mountains. Wait and see is the forecast now. Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 30 2014 06:04 )
