If we had that much influence, the east coast would be huge and firing everyday of the year. You can't jinx momma nature. She does whatever she wants. We can just sit around like kids on Christmas eve hoping not to have coal in our stocking come morning time. Cause on the other hand, we all sit around *****ing about how flat it is all year and that doesn't produce any waves. Women sit around watching TV shows about old, rich wenches with fake cheeks, noses and tits talk about nothing and get wasted off chardonnay. We sit around, speculating about big waves and phantom swells. We gotta have something to do.
I agree and talk about swell hopes all the time once a TS or Cane form but this hype began when it was just loose storms and now it's down from 80% chance of formation to 50%.
And from flhurricane.com this afternoon : "At 30/12Z, NHC placed the center of 93L at 9.3N 44.7W with winds of 30 knots (probably very generous) and movement to the west at 15 knots. I suspect that the latitude is also a bit generous with the actual location a little further to the south, but the important realization is that there has been no northward component in the past 36 hours. Most of the model output seems to be putting a heavy bias on climatology - and that bias is too strong for such a weak system that may well remain weak for quite some time. Light windshear today, northerly shear on Thursday, light again on Friday followed by strong west to west northwest shear over the weekend will probably mean a modest system at best - at least until later on Sunday when shear will relax once again. If this thing survives, the persistent low latitude westerly track of a weaker system will eventually require track adjustments more to the left - and the BAM suite and HWRF seem to be hinting at this already."
Remember them both! Both produced good surf in Delaware, Fran slammed into Wrightsville and ruined a trip I had planned with my wife.
What's the state-us for this here storm? It's kicking a bit north now with pressure dropping a hair and winds staying steady at 35. FLY A BANNER FOR TROPICAL HYPE
From flhurricane.com: 5:00 AM EDT 31 July 2014 Update Despite being nearly decapitated by modest shear and some dry air entrainment, the low designated Invest 93L has continued walking a thin line from being upgradable, to being forgettable. Not surprisingly, yesterday NHC adjusted their depression forecast to a coin flip: 50/50. This morning 93L finds itself back in a slightly better environment to finally seal the deal, and NHC has teams at the ready tentatively scheduled to check it out later today, or tonight. Bottom line, more factors than not today support a potential resumption of development, and given 93L's still low latitude owing to its starts and fits, interests in the islands should take note. Near tropical storm force winds are already occurring, and only a small increase in organization could warrant watches and warnings, with a direct impact now more possible. "
Really? What storm? There are none. 93L will be gone in a couple days, and there are only minor disturbances behind it. No storms to speak of
Today's updated ENS model. They haven't updated it this afternoon. Waiting to see whats up. NOAA has a little more confidence, upgrading it's chances to develop to 70%+ I am sure we are all looking at the same data from the same sources, so if no one else updates, I will do my best to do so.
I am assuming he is talking about this one: It's about 4 days behind 93L heading west off the NW coast of Africa. ATLC TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N31W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N31W 1012 MB MOVING W AT 15 KT. BETWEEN 60 NM AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17N36W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N34W 1012 MB. BETWEEN 45 NM AND 120 NM N QUADRANT OF LOW PRES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES DISSIPATED. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N42W TO 09N42W. FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 38N AND 44W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
ugh...Refer to the wind maps... WindSwellSucks, you're spot on. 93L will only make it if she gets to the gulf. We will see her return as an area of low pressure at a later date if that works out.
Flhurricane.com: "Vortex message from Recon a little while ago confirms a closed surface circulation with maximum winds of about 40-45 MPH. If 93L doesn't open up into nothing more than a vigorous wave, which it may very well end up doing if convection doesn't begin building back up, and soon, then odds favor Tropical Storm Bertha being declared prior to its passage through or by the Antilles. Some of the key stats from the Vortex Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 19:59:50Z Center Fix Location: 417 miles (671 km) to the ESE (103°) from Bridgetown, Barbados Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) In addition to the WC-130 which penetrated the center multiple times, the Gulfstream (G-IV) has been sampling the air all around 93L today. Combined, the data from both of these missions will be fed into the models and coming runs should be much better for it. "
