Guys we need to talk

Its really spot on I would say about 95% of the time down here.

 

Bencurr..... Isn't Seldom Seen's name Ben?


Wtf, SS?

 

Yeah I saw a lot of that on here. Be grateful for what Ma gives ya or beat it. Or stop counting chickens before they hatch and taking the forecast like it's written in stone.

 

Hi, I'm Ben, and i'm an SI-aholic.

Dat ain't me Clemmy, this is the only place I complain online...and I scored hard yesterday. Weird timing though eh?

 

Man, he can really make a clever meme, wonder how that's working out for him.

 

MSW shill?

 

I gotta say, SI has been on %100 percent for the most part on every swell this summer. I think we have had way more "it wasn't that good" posts this year, and I am with you, I have no idea why. I mean, I expected chest to HH conditions on every swell. Just like every resource on the planet said it would be. A couple times it got a foot or two bigger for 30 minutes or so, but you can't indicate that stuff in a forecast.

Swell info NEVER said that these swells were going to be anything more than HH+ at best. I know on Arthur, Jersey got a couple feet bigger than anticipated, but that is the thing here with the forecasting, why is it so hard for everyone to understand that things change every second, and the only real accurate forecast to read is why its about 24 hours out. The wind predictions become more clear, the storms exact position becomes clean.... The night before every surf, SI has said it was going to be something, and it has been exactly that.

I mean, yeah, for Bertha, at one point, 6 days out, it was calling Hilton Head Island to be 8-10 feet. That long range forecast lasted about 12 hours, then it went to 6-8, then 5-7... yada yada. 3 days out, it said 4-6 and that is exactly what it stayed at and what it was.

People must not understand how these programs work. Micah isn't sitting there in a control room, with 17 flat screen with radars, and weather maps and wind graphs.... It a SYSTEM and it's pulling the data from the same sources as NOAA, as Surfline and as the US government.... Micah can change the way the data is handled, but when his artificial intelligence reads a certain chunk of this data, it is going to interpret it that way, so when the storm is 600 miles away, it is going to assume that the factors that are taking place will continue to be true....

Anyway, thats about it. SI is not just some guy taking a guess at every spot in the world on any given day. It's a freaking script, and surfline and everyone is going off the same data. Surfline just does things that "mask" what they are really doing and it helps them disguise any mistakes....

I will give you an example. On huge swells in CA, surfline will just use enormous prediction figures, to cover their ass, but it also leaves too many questions... So here is an example:

Tomorrow on Surfline: AM) 10-15 feet, building swell PM Forecast) 13-20 feet with occasional sets of 18-25 feet....

While that is a made up forecast, that is what they do. It leaves you planning, and thinking, okay, tomorrow afternoon, I will ride the stepup, cause its going to be big. Solid 15 feet, I guess, with sets ranging up to 10 feet larger than that.... So surfline can say, see, I told you that it would be 13-25 feet....

That is the main different, sure SI will put "2-4ft" but at any given time, on Micah's actual graph, it has to pinpoint EXACTLY what it thinks it will be. The other sites don't show their cards like that.... They just give you wider ranges....

People that feels skunked, or that thought it was going to be DOH and its chest need to look at the data themselves and make their own judgements anyway. If you are a lifestyle pro, and you gassed up your skis, got 25 boards, chicks, bros, go pros, and you get skunked because you check swellinfo a week before, you need to re-evaluate your intel.

Like, if that guy is a really good surf photog, doesn't he know how to look at the weather maps himself?

 

SI was spot on for FB, SC.

 

14 second period swell was no bueno for my break.... close outs at that swell period.

 

It's isn't necessarily the swell period that's the problem, but the swell angle.

 

If you know your local, you knew exactly what to expect, given the predicted swell size, direction, and period, combined with wind direction and strength. Absolutely no surprises... and if you were, shame on you.

 

heard that OP! I was walking off the beach yesterday morning grinning ear to ear, and some 95 lb hipster with half of his head shaved asked me "Is it fun out there?, looks a little slow". Slow? Grinding barrels in Virginia F**king beach?, YES, it's fun out there...

 

i scored

 

Definitely no surprises. I knew it would primarily be close outs where I usually surf. I ended up surfing a more crowded spot that handled the conditions better. It's just annoying when people hype it up and call it swell of the year. I think the coast handles wind swells better but do like those long period swells where all conditions are perfect. Then, the long period stuff can be magic.