Super Long Range Forecast

Discussion in 'Mid Atlantic' started by SkySurfnSnow, Sep 3, 2007.

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  1. Sep 3, 2007 #1
    SkySurfnSnow

    SkySurfnSnow Well-Known Member

    121
    Nov 14, 2006
    Well, well, well. The GFS and GFDL models have a tropical cyclone forming off the SC coast within the next 48 hours. As of tonights' Sattelite run and Quickscat information and the fact that pressures are falling in the this area, it appears that a cyclone may be forming as we speak. NHC has classified this disturbance as Invest 99 and is planning on having a Hurricane Hunter on standby for a possible recon tommorrow.

    Beside all the above, it appears on the Super Long Range that this system may meander just offshore for awhile creating nice SE fetch from it's interaction with a strengthening 1028 ridge sliding SE across Bermuda. Watch out OBX and Mid-Atlantic! IF the models hold true, you may start feeling some pre-runner SE swell of 9 sec@1.5 feet on Thursday. With respect to the best case scenario track, seas are modeled at 12-18 feet and with swell decay of 500 miles or so, the SE swell will increase in size to about 2.5 -4 feet @ 8 secs on Friday into Saturday.

    Keep your fingers crossed. I think that Big Kahuna has made us suffer long enough...see ya out there!
    ________
    BMW K1200RS
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2011
    SkySurfnSnow, Sep 3, 2007
    SkySurfnSnow, Sep 3, 2007
  3. Sep 3, 2007 #2
    bsurf1

    bsurf1 Member

    5
    Aug 6, 2007
    i hope and pray it holds true
     
    bsurf1, Sep 3, 2007
    bsurf1, Sep 3, 2007

  5. Sep 3, 2007 #3
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    Showing potential.

    But don't get a head of yourself, the models have been varying quite dramatically with each run.
     
    Swellinfo, Sep 3, 2007
    Swellinfo, Sep 3, 2007
  6. Sep 4, 2007 #4
    Dawn_Patrol

    Dawn_Patrol Well-Known Member

    433
    Jan 26, 2007
    Sweet! best case waist-chest high. :rolleyes:
     
    Dawn_Patrol, Sep 4, 2007
    Dawn_Patrol, Sep 4, 2007
  7. Sep 4, 2007 #5
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    GFDL model is showing some real potential this morning.

    PS. The swellinfo model doesn't handle hurricane winds at this point, so if there is tropical development, the forecasts are undercall at this point.
     
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
  8. Sep 4, 2007 #6
    quietflightsurfr89

    quietflightsurfr89 Well-Known Member

    47
    Jul 26, 2006
    does this have to do with anything concerning saturday
     
    quietflightsurfr89, Sep 4, 2007
    quietflightsurfr89, Sep 4, 2007
  9. Sep 4, 2007 #7
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    yes, latest run showing potential for the weekend.
     
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
  10. Sep 4, 2007 #8
    beaner

    beaner Well-Known Member

    309
    Jun 4, 2006
    looks pretty sweet...maybe good waves for the NYBB pro. micah, what makes the models differ from each other? in otherwords why do the gfs, gfdl, etc often contradict each other?
     
    beaner, Sep 4, 2007
    beaner, Sep 4, 2007
  11. Sep 4, 2007 #9
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    The GFS is a global model, whereas the GFDL take a small grid of winds that are taken from hurricane hunters and such to model tropical cyclones.

    In such tropical storm cases, the GFDL forecasts generally provide a better picture and are helpful for swell predictions.

    As mentioned, the Swellinfo model can't currently handle the GFDL winds. The best thing to look at for these scenarios is the Wavewatch hurricane model.

    Go to:
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/main_int.html

    Select NAH US coastal zoom, and click on the point forecasts -> NAH stands for North Atlantic hurricane.

    Would like to get a Swellinfo hurricane model going, but that isn't going happen this year unfortunately.
     
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
  12. Sep 4, 2007 #10
    OBlove

    OBlove Well-Known Member

    380
    Aug 29, 2006
    Man o man!

    What ever happened to looking at the cam or just checking the surf? wow. this tech stuff has gotton out of hand! micah you need to stop this madness! LOL:)
     
    OBlove, Sep 4, 2007
    OBlove, Sep 4, 2007
  13. Sep 4, 2007 #11
    Lumpy

    Lumpy Well-Known Member

    267
    Aug 28, 2006
    Beaner!!!!
     
    Lumpy, Sep 4, 2007
    Lumpy, Sep 4, 2007
  14. Sep 4, 2007 #12
    SkySurfnSnow

    SkySurfnSnow Well-Known Member

    121
    Nov 14, 2006
    As of tonight, models still in agreement for a said swell event Friday through Monday. Since I am driving from DC, it still early to begin looking for places to stay along the DelMarVa for the weekend adventure. Currents GFDL model has the system swinging by the Pennisula on Sunday into Monday so you just never know. Just got a new XTR2 board from WRV and I can't wait to use it in some juice.
    ________
    Yamaha DT-2
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2011
    SkySurfnSnow, Sep 4, 2007
    SkySurfnSnow, Sep 4, 2007
  15. Sep 4, 2007 #13
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    Nice... your stoked.. I'm feeling hopeful for this one as well.

     
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
  16. Sep 4, 2007 #14
    Chris Joyner

    Chris Joyner Moderator

    690
    May 23, 2006
    You coming down to the spot?
     
    Chris Joyner, Sep 4, 2007
    Chris Joyner, Sep 4, 2007
  17. Sep 4, 2007 #15
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    If all goes well :)
     
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
    Swellinfo, Sep 4, 2007
  18. Sep 4, 2007 #16
    Chris Joyner

    Chris Joyner Moderator

    690
    May 23, 2006
    Cool, I'll be filming for sure.
     
    Chris Joyner, Sep 4, 2007
    Chris Joyner, Sep 4, 2007
  19. Sep 4, 2007 #17
    SkySurfnSnow

    SkySurfnSnow Well-Known Member

    121
    Nov 14, 2006
    To beat a dead horse even further from a discussion we all had about 9 mnths ago, is this spot near where I'll be? niri
    ________
    Honda CD175
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2011
    SkySurfnSnow, Sep 4, 2007
    SkySurfnSnow, Sep 4, 2007
  20. Sep 5, 2007 #18
    Chris Joyner

    Chris Joyner Moderator

    690
    May 23, 2006
    It is near there....
     
    Chris Joyner, Sep 5, 2007
    Chris Joyner, Sep 5, 2007
  21. Sep 5, 2007 #19
    rDJ

    rDJ Well-Known Member

    355
    Jul 23, 2007
    When is this thing gonna go Tropical???

    Morning update still says "within a few days"???

    A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR
    29N72W AT 05/0900 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
    THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE
    TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 33N68W. THIS SYSTEM HAS
    CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
    BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR
    SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT COULD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.     THE
    LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED
    MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E WITHIN 150/180 NM
    OF A LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO 31N69W WITH SCATTERED
    SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF
    FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO JACKSONVILLE.


    Also, the projected path by WW3 and Swellinfo show this thing hugging the coast. I just don't know if I buy that.

    http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html

    If you look at the radar it has definite eastward movement, but yet WW3 48 hr model and swellinfo show it parked on top of Hatteras.

    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/main_int.html

    Just seems like a path east of Bermuda is more likely. Either way we get waves, but what do I know.


    Never fear though...
    There are two more tropical waves proving that the sleeping beast in the Atlantic has awoken:

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
    LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N
    FROM 28W-45W OVERTAKING THE 1013 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
    ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
    16N-19N BETWEEN 30W-46W.

    TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
    IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE E
    CARIBBEAN MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND LIMITING ANY
    SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.
     
    rDJ, Sep 5, 2007
    rDJ, Sep 5, 2007
  22. Sep 5, 2007 #20
    rDJ

    rDJ Well-Known Member

    355
    Jul 23, 2007
    Wow, GFDL model shows it heading east and strengthening to a Tropical storm tonight then hooking west back towards the east coast on Friday as a Cat 1 'Caine and building up to a Cat 3 on Sunday night!!!

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200799_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad

    By the way, the delay time on this site from when you submit a post to when it appears is extremely annoying. But so far this site is worth it.:)
     
    rDJ, Sep 5, 2007
    rDJ, Sep 5, 2007
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