Watching the Gulf system

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

This looks like a low probability, but it might still bring a little something. Depending.

 

Yep. Gotta take care of our Gulf boys

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from Central
America northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea are
primarily associated with an upper-level trough. This activity is
expected to spread into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Upper-level winds are only marginal for tropical cyclone formation
and development, if any, will be slow to occur while this system
moves generally northwestward through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas in association with a trough
of low pressure that has recently formed at the surface. This system
is expected to move across the Yucatan peninsula later today and
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late tomorrow. Environmental
conditions could support slow development of this system during the
next few days while it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

 

O Barry
The models have it going to Texas for the most part.

And there is this from FLHurricane.com:"
The area in the northwest Caribbean sea is now being watched as 91L, it is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the western Gulf. And has multiple model support

Those along the coast in the northwestern Gulf, particularly mid to upper coastal Texas and western Louisiana should watch this system as it develops over the next several days. It will at least bring more rain to the areas (some of which really don't need it)."

And now NHC has odds to 40% over next 48 hours, 50% over next several days.

Let's hear it for the boys on the Gulf!

 

We want details! Wave size? Interval? Clean? Choppy?

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula and an
upper-level trough are producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and winds to near gale force over portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Some development of this system is possible after it moves over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today and across the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
rains should continue over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent