Strong El Nino for Fall And Winter

Amen brother! My honest opinion is the patterns are in flux, the base line has changed due to prolonged warm weather, warm sea surface temps and weird jet stream shifts. It's like figuring if the Dolphins will win more than 8 games this year....who know, I sure the hell hope so! Peace and waves bro!

 

what affects does el nino have on noreastrs?

 

well blasters, its like when your sister sees black dudes
agitated and wet

more noreasters and more snow


this is going to be a stormy winter ala 2010, and then some

 

Dew. Let's f\/ck some whores.

 

Magic Seaweed's typically useless analysis on the El Nino impact on the US East Coast:

With both cold winter polar conditions and an enhanced equatorial temperatures we see (all things being equal) a stronger, more southerly jet stream and stronger, larger winter storms creating westerly swell for Hawaii and the US East Coast.

I guess head to your favorite west-facing break this winter. Idiots

 

Despite scientific advances, forecasting anything past the next 2 minutes is elusive. You are better off having a clean window to look out for weather predictions than any institutional forecast.
Believing anything in SI, MSW, or surfline is a unfortunately a waste--their sole goal is to deliver us to advertisers, which is how they make money.
Oh, maybe a Ouiji board works better.....

 

I heard the Delaware river breaks at Trenton on a good south swell

 

I read that stupid MSW "analysis" earlier this morning as well and couldn't tell if that "East Coast" bit was just ignorance or actually them being that dumb. Either way, they suck.

 

Naples Pier, "the Belmar of the Gulf" should be firing all winter! It's an East Coast west swell magnet.

 

The information known about El Nino is pretty remarkable. They say a weak tropical season for Atlantic....which we are certainly seeing and stronger winter storms with a lower jet stream...which we hope to see.

I like when the jet stream is lower and those Lows pop of the mid-Atlantic turning on better waves for most of the EC and PR. On the contrary, I hate when those lows/nor'easters run up and out over New England given most of the EC the Heisman

 

It's the Polar Oscillation that determines the jet stream track . This from James Wieland, meteorologistand surf forecaster www.wptv.com/surfing

So October might be slow. The winter season will see a lot of southern track storms, Cool and wet for Florida which means frequent storms rolling by, and frequent chances for swell. However, the NAO will still be the key factor. If it doesn't go negative this winter, that won't allow the full potential of the el nino surf season to be realized here. Having a negative NAO through the winter means all those big storms rolling through the south and east will move offshore, instead of just hugging the coast. This of course will allow for good groundswell generation through the winter. The past couple winters had mainly a positive NAO. Although the NAO can't really be predicted more than two weeks out, I've heard talks about comparing previous years like this year and having a negative AO and NAO. So we have that going for us. With the jet far south, this will also keep winter storms moving quickly. So we may see raging windchop one day, with a nice clean-up the next, then another one one the way. In other words, consistency.
In general, it looks like winter will start slow, the really kick into gear January-March with well below normal temps and above normal rainfall expected for the southeast. Also el nino winters see more tornado activity in Florida January-April.
After the winter, waves might continue into the summer.... I've researched the past 5 or so el nino years and found the Summer after the el nino is very active in the tropics. Good for wave, bad for getting hit.
So all in all the extended forecast looks good for surf, we're just going to have to wait....especially us here in south Florida. At least summer is half over for us, before you know it it'll be November and we will be getting good surf and good weather!

For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman

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NAO: (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)

 

as a moron as diagnosed by barry, those squiggles sure are purdy

 

nice SIS. Only part is the colder than normal temps....which should not bother you much huh?

 

All hail the mighty Gulfstream Current!

 

Originally Posted by scotty

Magic Seaweed's typically useless analysis on the El Nino impact on the US East Coast:

With both cold winter polar conditions and an enhanced equatorial temperatures we see (all things being equal) a stronger, more southerly jet stream and stronger, larger winter storms creating westerly swell for Hawaii and the US East Coast.

I guess head to your favorite west-facing break this winter. Idiots


Think PR and Cane Garden dude. Let's hope for a good winter!

 

I think you're right FLSURFDOG. Makes sense to me. BTW the navy is still tracking remnants of Grace. Conditions may be conducive in carribean and gulf to fire it up.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't el nino cause above average temperatures in the northeast? Whats with all this talk about a cold snowy winter in the the north east?

 

Shhhhhh!! Don't clutter their brains with facts; they find them painful.