Update on the tropics

Disturbance 1: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours

As of 2:00 pm EDT Fri Jun 3 2016 ...
A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters over the weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

 

Unfortunately, all my info is stolen from flhurricane.com and Natl Hurricane Center, but living in Florida for over 35 years, you start to get the feel of what's real, and what's a fizzle. Sorta.

 

e Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 pm EDT Sat Jun 4 2016 ...
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area is forming over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
accompanied by thunderstorm activity that is currently poorly
organized. This low is expected to gradually develop further
tonight and Sunday as it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, the low
is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves
northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early
next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

 

As of 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 (Advisory # 1)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 knots; 35 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Located at: 21.9N 88.1W
Movement: north at 7 knots; 8 mph

NHC predicting TS Colin before it hits Florida.

 

O Frankie

 

"]B]5:45PM EDT 5 June 2016 Update
Recon has found Tropical Storm force winds, and thus Tropical Depression 3 is Now Upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin. This is the earliest we have seen the 3rd named storm since official hurricane tracking began."

 

Looks like it might brush the Carolinas after it crosses over Florida.

 

HaHa! Bet she drives a badass car too

Colin is here. The house windows are completely steamed up and it's like a sauna out there. The barometer has dropped.