Tropical Storm Noel (50 mph) has been christened (as of 2 p.m.), and is dumping heavy rain on Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Flood warnings and watches remain posted for Puerto Rico. The storm, located just south of Hispaniola, is moving toward the NNW at about 5 mph and is expected to continue on a general northwesterly track for the next 24 hours. Heavy rain will persist in Puerto Rico through tonight with additional accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible. But even more intense downpours loom for Hispaniola, Jamaica and southeast Cuba where up to 20 inches could fall in a few spots. Most totals will be in the 8- to 12-inch range. Mudslides and flash flooding will become distinct possibilities.
First off,do you work for swellinfo.com or are you board out of your mind? Secondly, this thing aint bringing us swell so who cares! Have a great day.
Not brining us swell? You better look again and check NC for the boogie contest next weekend. I'll be in Frisco fo sho sucka.....
looks like some significant potential for swell for next weekend. I'm going to post a video forecast tomorrow regarding the tropical storm and the potential next weekend swell.
Is this making up your mind for next weekend? There is room in the house for you guys if you are in....
the way its looking now, the whole mid atlantic might be firing. I'm not sure what the plans are for heading south, but I'll catch up with you during the week.
TS Knoll video forecast: http://www.swellinfo.com/surfnews/tropical-storm-knoll-forecast-oct2807.html
woops. sorry join man. looks nice. lost my boogie board though so i will have to pass on a boogie comp.
No worries, just busting your chops. We all hope for waves from anything since this year has been one to forget.
Something of interest is being discussed. Noel is expected to head through the Bahamas then get recurved to the North East by a cold front (several fronts are lined up to march through the US this week) Of interest is the front that pushed Noel out to sea could very well see it's southern portion cut off and stalled in Noel's wake. A secondary system could possibly form and move northwards until it too is recurved out to sea by a front. The second system would be much farther north if and when this occurs but it would mean a lot for the mid atlantic surf reports. Timing is largely unknown at this point. Just something to keep an eye on though.
Here's my video forecast summary regarding Noel and how Noel could hook it up for us... Looks pretty exciting right now.
GFDL has Noel reaching hurricane strength while at the far edge of our swell window, but that is likely overestimated. It is probably in our best interest for it to remain a strong tropical storm and not reach 'caine strength. The stronger the storm, the higher it will reach in the atmosphere and easier it will get pushed out to sea by the front that will pass off the east coast on Thursday. A hurricane would hook closer out towards Bermuda at the edge of our swell window. A tropical storm staying closer to the coast could bring bigger surf. Noel is disorganized after passing over PR and the Dominican Republic and will likely not begin to reorganize until later tomorrow (Tuesday). I think Wednesday morning will bring a much clearer picture of the track and strength because we will see how much strength is gained and how strong that front will be. Right now though, track and strength look decent for us. I'm getting everything done so my schedule is clear for the weekend. PFS.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ww3_cgi/cgi-bin/ww3_all.cgi?color=w&type=prod&area=natl&prod=sig_wav_ht The naval maps show this thing getting really strong once off the east coast. Strongest low I've ever seen in the atlantic. check it out.
36 ft seas at about 75W. That's gotta be forcasting 'caine strength. What's our swell window? About 50 - 55W? Wow, not bad. Forcast should be bumped up if that comes true. NWS shows it never reaching 'caine strength, which I tend to agree with. Water surface temps have cooled a bit and passing over Cuba weakened it alot. It would have to strengthen while over the Bahamas and near Florida. GDFL says Cat 2 'Caine by tomorrow. I just don't see that happening this time of year. Either way it's current track forcast is really good for us. It could get messy for Florida. A closer path to Florida bodes well for the rest of us up north though. Keep that path inside of 70W after the recurve and we're good to go TS or 'caine either way. Hopefull the chilly 60 degree air this weekend will thin the crowds. I've seen more surfers in Oct than I did the rest of the year. Uhg! http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm16/projectedpath_large.html?from=wxcenter_maps projected path is looking good as well...
just wondering where this swell is gonna be best for the weekend should i head down to the obx or stay in nj
