As of noon today, the NWS is still calling it small for MD-VA http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn.pl?file=forecasts/marine/coastal/an/anz650.txt COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM- 1221 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009 TONIGHT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING. THU SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THU NIGHT S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING. FRI S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRI NIGHT S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SAT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT. A CHANCE OF TSTMS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SUN NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS. The late afternoon DE coastal waters forecast has bumped up a little.
i talked to one of the ocpb captains today and he said its a possibility that pending on the wave size/ currents that they might not let people out in the water...he said people could go in up to their knees. . . Any thoughts?
Hudson canyon to baltimore canyon including the waters w of 39.3n 71.9w...sw to 37.7n 72.9w 1100 am edt wed aug 19 2009 this afternoon w to sw winds 10 to 15 kt...except winds to 30 kt possible in tstms early. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Tonight and thu s to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Thu night sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Fri s to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas building to 5 to 7 ft with se swell. Sat winds diminishing to variable 5 to 10 kt...then becoming nw 10 to 15 kt late. Seas building to 10 to 16 ft with se swell...highest e. Sun n to nw winds 15 to 20 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 6 ft late.
Hate to sound like the group Dad here, crew, but Norcal Transplant is right. Anyone of intermediate skill level or less (like me) ought to think hard about paddling out if the surf is really as big as they say it's going to be. I'm a NJ surfer and can handle the 5-6 foot Jersey Juice just fine, but when I tried to surf 10-12-footers in Laguna, CA last fall i got my A*S KICKED. Watched an ambulance haul off one guy who got caught in the beach break and broke multiple bones. Take it from someone who learned the hard way- surfing 10-foot-plus waves is a whole different ballgame.
The guy I talked to I didnt get his name but he said pretty much for anyone, he said if for whatever reason something went wrong out in the lineup it would be dangerous to put one of his guards at "risk" swimming into well OH to DOH, he said it would be more like a major rescue effort rather than the normal one guard swimming out to help someone..
Letting swimmers/vacationers go in "just up to their knees" in the forecasted conditions is highly negligent. Nothing like the power of storm surge long period swells combined with an incoming tide... 3 to 4 inches of flowing powerful water that becomes 4 to 6 inches that becomes larger and larger. And the freak sets that come out of nowhere.
I paddled out in Hurricane Dean swell in 1989. I had no business being out there, having only started bodyboarding that year. That storm had a very similar track to Bill, albeit at a somewhat lower intensity. Ocean City, MD can not handle that type of swell. All I remember were block long closeouts. By the time I got outside, I was scared ****less. I would paddle for a wave, look left, look right and pull back. I can still remember the sound the waves made when they broke in like no inches of water. I finally decided that I was just going to have to drop in and hope I didn't die. I rode straight down the wave and it exploded on my fins and nearly sucked me off my board. I was grateful just to make it back in. I would estimate the waves to be somewhere at 10 to 12 feet that day. Some places can handle this kind of swell. OCMD ain't it.
**** man, i don't have any sort of equipment for DOH surf, the best i got for that kind of juice is a 6'5" squashtail that's 15 years old. pray for me or something, i'll need it.
5-7ft sat, 5-8ft sunday doubt jersey will see any 10 footers unless at standout breaks past bayhead and they will most likely be closeouts. I think people are getting way too psyched out for this, 5-7ft is normal at other breaks around the world and consistent. The problem is how will jersey handle this swell, if it's clean and you dont see huge closeouts then charge it man. If there are closeouts and its a big scene, I'm smarter then to paddle out because it doenst make sense. You will never surf sizable waves unless you try, I'm not talking about Waimea or Mavericks bombs that are 15ft and huge paddles--this is 5-8ft waves. If you are in shape, have the right quiver, check the lineup and time sets, get amped up--why not paddle out if its clean? Worse comes to worse you catch one wave and are stoked, who cares what other people think. If you try and cant make it, well..there a bunch of people sitting on the beach who couldnt go out either so its all good.
Join the club, I have the same but its 2 years old and fairly new but I'm 5"8 so its long enough for me for 5-8ft surf, could use a little mode volume though--so some waves will def be tougher to catch. paddle your *ass off
i think surfline is right about wave height for new jerey. mr. swellinfo made a great comparison where mavericks will be 40ft and a break right next to it will only be overhead. i am estimating south jersey to be 2ft overhead kinda sloppy on sat, but fun...and sunday head-3ft overhead and pretty much epic..how its gonna happen reminds me just of hannah, where sunday was absolutly going off, sat was big and fun, and friday was stomach high and really fun. i have a feeling it will play out the same way. to all those worriers, chill out, get pysched, this is the time to get barreled for the first time this summer! there is go way it will possibly be triple overhead and offshore. now maybe OBX...
i forget what storm it was, maybe a noreaster but 2-4 years ago the guards didnt let anyone go out. surfers and tourists alike. we traveled to assateague and went out against the guards will and they called the police on us. they let us go and we went back to oc and once the guards were gone we went right out. no problem. probably an 8-10ft day and glassy.
dredg2, I have to disagree. We definitely have had surf that's been 9 - 12 feet in atlantic city. While some of the breaks in AC won't get that big due to bottom conditions, others places in the city absolutely have the capability to handle waves in that spectrum. To be quite honest, i'll be happy with ANY waves this storm provides. From what we've had for the past 3 or so weeks, anything will be much appreciated. And depending on what this brings, i'll either be riding my 9' or my 6'4". And you can be sure that I will be out there at some point simply enjoying the waves bodysurfing. See ya out there...
in my opinion that 5-7 ft forecast is waaay to conservative. but you can make up your own opinion on what you think 8-10 ft+ @ 18 seconds will be at your break.
