Rate the forecast

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by mushdoc, Aug 18, 2016.

  1. DosXX

    DosXX Well-Known Member

    Mar 2, 2013
    Surfline for the cams mostly and the reports. SI for the forecasts, as well as the political, medical, music, food/beverage, firearms, sports, automotive, and philosophical discussions.
    But it comes down to knowing the break to catch the "windows of opportunity" during these flat spells.
     
  2. aka pumpmaster

    aka pumpmaster Well-Known Member

    Apr 30, 2008
    O Barry:

    Screenshot_2016-08-19-06-57-18.jpg
     

  3. Towelie

    Towelie Well-Known Member

    Nov 27, 2014
    cam's HAVE been invented, you know :cool:

    you can also tell but average SI thræde activity.
     
  4. sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    Jun 17, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2016
  5. sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    Jun 17, 2013
    James Wieland of WPTV in West Palm Beach gives a good breakdown of swell and wind direction here and upcoast. Pretty accurate, with some good meteorology thrown in.

    SwellInfo is pretty good 3 days out, and has the buoy link. NOAA is always useful but too cookie cutter and the winds are wrong lots of time regarding subtle things like direction and speed, nothing important. Good enough for government work.

    I take all that, mix it with a grain of salt, add three teaspoons of the latest Betty model, divide it by the Euro models (they rule), and there you have it.
     
  6. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    There are some uses to which tax dollars SHOULD be used. Bouys are one of them. Coast Guard as well, and so too the military. But social programs just foster cheats, theft etc.
    Use the money where the Constitution originally pointed ......and no more.
     
  7. BassMon2

    BassMon2 Well-Known Member

    Jan 27, 2015
    I'm kinda with barry here. Iv been agreeing with allot he has to say lately. Bouys are deffinitly the way to go. Bouy and the weather. When I first learned to surf, my uncle sort of showed me the ropes. Although he didn't exactly teach me in the water. Had to figure that out myself. But anyway, when id visit him we would wake up early and watch the weather channel. That's how he would determine if it's worth going or not.

    As far as sites go. SI is pretty accurate. I find that they usually over call the wind though. Surfline will often downplay things unless it's a big swell event. And that's the only sites Iv ever used. When I'm feeling lazy SI gives me a good idea of what's going on, but when I wake up its the bouy and a wind check that gets me heading towards the beach or not. Hell, I never use surfline at all anymore and SI I use just to give me an idea of when to pay closer attention to the bouys then usual.

    The most important tool is local knowledge and your own eyes. How certain spots act at certain tides. So many times I head to a certain spot when forecasts say flat, and I end up scoring thigh-waist high fun. Right board, right spot, right time. That's what it's about.

    I kinda like surf forecasting sites. Chest high and onshore, SI is all red. People look and say oh no red means bad. I check the wind, it's freaking 7mph. Beach is empty. I get solid waves.
     
  8. your pier

    your pier Well-Known Member

    Dec 2, 2013
    On another note...didn't we just do this treade a coupla months ago?

    No offense, Dsup
     
  9. fl.surfdog

    fl.surfdog Well-Known Member

    Dec 6, 2010
    Exactly....there are a couple of other sites to....I do like to look at the model forecasts and form my own opinion, most of the time I'm right with all of the other stuff mixed in the batter.
     
  10. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    No offense taken, not my thread
     
  11. your pier

    your pier Well-Known Member

    Dec 2, 2013
    Hahhaha, whhhooops...I mean murdoc...two wks in to a four wk vaca ...time to put the lectronics down
     
  12. DosXX

    DosXX Well-Known Member

    Mar 2, 2013
    Yeah, earlier this year. It comes down to knowing your break.
     
  13. Donald J Trump

    Donald J Trump Well-Known Member

    181
    Aug 9, 2016
    Make the forecast great again. What have you got to lose folks?
     
  14. rodndtube

    rodndtube Well-Known Member

    819
    May 21, 2006
    I hear ya... but, look at today's forecast for Maria's Beach and the forecast for the next several days ;) Now check Punta Higuera forecast. Jobos is 1-2' and swarmy.
     
  15. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Yeah, but.......it is PR, land of the lazy. I am sure they do not keep up with their bouy maintenance down there. Hell, even Surfline is unable to maintain viable cam service!!
    Now, having said that, both Punta Higueras and Maria thrive on different swell directions; that northwest corner of the island is EXACTLY where the dividing line is--you can actually SEE the different wave directions and currents. That division does get over-ridden on larger swells, however.

    Also, bouy 41043 is 175 miles northeast of PR; pretty far out but works as an early indicator for what is in the making. The bouy NE of St Martin right now is reading 3.6' for 12 seconds; PR 41043 is reading 8 seconds....the difference there is that the 12 seconds is an advanced warning a solid period swell from Fiona will be hitting PR in a couple of days.......hopefully for them. Tempting to grab a flight!!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 20, 2016
  16. rodndtube

    rodndtube Well-Known Member

    819
    May 21, 2006
    Surfline forecast for the next several days is FLAT. Swell Info is calling 0-1 as minimal, not flat.
     
  17. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Okay, will be interesting to see what the difference will be--it will take a few days for surf from Fiona to reach Punta Higueras area. Glad you pointed this out to me--it will allow me to gauge my own rate of accuracy for the area.
    FYI, I do not rely on ANY forecast that is out more than 3 days--error rate is way too high, no matter who it is from.
     
  18. backside hack

    backside hack Well-Known Member

    315
    Apr 4, 2012
    +2
     
  19. rodndtube

    rodndtube Well-Known Member

    819
    May 21, 2006
    Given the overall weakness and the track of Fiona you can most likely count out anything over 2 ft. at Maria's and Punta Higuera (and that is being generous). Your best bet would be Surfers Beach and eastward. Gaston or Hermine have much more potential at this point.
     
  20. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Perhaps, we will see. Fiona could all of a sudden change ans step up. At least that is what I am hoping for!! Presently, the swells headed to that NE side of the Caribbean are in the 3.5' range, but they could faze out. I will wait and see if either storm gives a swell worthy of flying down. Fortunately, I do have time to go.