Storm Tread aka Betty's Tread

See above map by dog. The yellow storm is supposed to die. But the red one is as follows:

As of 2:00 pm EDT Thu Sep 8 2016 ...
A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
westward-moving tropical wave. Development of this system during
the next couple of days, if any, will likely be very slow. However,
conditions are forecast to become more favorable early next week,
and a tropical depression could form in the open central Atlantic
while the system moves northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...60 percent

 

Talk dirty to me betty.

 

choo choo

 

As long as it keeps it rideable around here in happy.

 

Looking like 94L could be similar to Gaston. Hopefully with better conditions...

 

Lots to watch:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave is located a little more than 1000 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. This system is gradually becoming better
organized, and conditions are forecast to be favorable for a
tropical depression to form this weekend or early next week. This
disturbance is expected to move toward the west-northwest and then
northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

2. Cloudiness and showers located just north of the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico are spreading west-northwestward with no
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to
be conducive for significant development.


Betty's note: some meteorologists not at NHC think this storm can get its act together since there is an area of low shear in its future/ mid week might see it come up EC of Florida.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

3. Satellite wind data indicate that low pressure located in the
Straits of Florida is producing squalls of 30 to 35 mph east of its
center. If the system's thunderstorm activity persists or increases
in organization, it could result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today or Saturday. However, even if a depression
forms, upper-level winds are not favorable for significant
development while the system moves westward into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. This system could produce squalls and gusty winds
in the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

 

Chugga chugga chooo choooo!

 

Hopefully. Gaston was like a hand job without a happy ending.

 

Gaston was a fun swell. Compared to most swell events, pretty blah. But considering this summer, it was pretty darn good. Although last weekend blew Gaston out of the water. Then stepped on it

 

True, just comparing the two two storms. Nice run of waves for sure

 

"Invest 94L is now Tropical Storm Ian, the ninth named tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Ian is embattled with shear, and only forecast to remain a tropical storm while spinning north out at sea.

92L to the left of it, 93L to the right, Florida is stuck in the middle between these two.

Low odds of development, but owing to their tenacity and closeness, continue to be watched. " flhurricane.com

 

1. Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that
an area of low pressure is located just inland near Daytona Beach,
Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along or just
offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system is
very close to having the organization required of a tropical
cyclone, and advisories could be initiated later this afternoon.
The low is expected to move north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
today, near and parallel to the northeast coast of Florida.
Regardless of development, strong gusty winds will continue over
portions of the northeast Florida coast today, and heavy rains will
continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and
tonight. Please consult your local National Weather Service office
for additional information on this system, including possible
warnings.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent


2. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during
the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

 

As of 2:00 am EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 ...
An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Surface observations and
satellite data indicate that the circulation of the low has become
better defined during the past several hours, but the associated
shower activity remains disorganized. Slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to continue over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

 

Back to Ian for a moment, It will give NE some waves. Not big, but some waves. They will get up here, based on the math I just did, Saturday into Sunday to fill in our coastal waters. And those will be the waves it has generated now, Wednesday mid day. We may get a few from yesterdays generating a bit earlier.
But later today, Ian will begin to turn towards Europe. It is presently heading north from its location East of Bermuda.

 

I find it interesting the similarity of the Gaston and coastal storm (forget the name) event and these two. Very similar. Gaston swell....at least here was jacked by the coastal storm as far as conditions. This set up may work out better given the more inland track and the high pressure, for Ian to produce some fun (well manicured) surf.

 

"Tropical Storm Julia continues pulling to the right of forecast, and the center has just emerged offshore of Savanna, Ga., presently located near 31.8N 80.8W Speculation on Julia's potential outcomes, including interaction with the warm waters east of Fl/Ga/SC, can be read about and discussed in the Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Lounge.

Invest 92L is sorta back. Yep. You may recall how this guy nearly became a classified TD while in the Florida Straits just a few days ago, but the next day was given hours left to survive in the face of extraordinarily high shear and dry air? Its remnants survived. (Again). Now interacting with troffines left in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone and TS Julia, this feature is presently centered near 26N 91W in the northern Gulf of Mexico and may soon be re-invest tagged. Observations from buoys, CMAN stations and ships suggest that a broad surface low has formed, with some gusts to tropical storm force noted. NHC has just added this one to their most recent TWO

Invest 95L is now TD TWELVE over the Cabo Verde islands, and is expected to become a named tropical storm later today, and track west-northwest. The next name on the list is Karl.

Further east, yet another vigorous tropical wave is set to enter the Atlantic by the weekend."

Flhurricane.com