The FUcast

It seems to clearly and sadly say head + and red here for the next few days, with on shores >20 == blown out city. Sunday, the wind looks to dies down, but it has the dreaded northern component.

It looks like the RI buoys will fair much better, but they don't think too kindly of out of state swellers.

Not sure what is going on further North for Barryland and the Maniacs.

Can only hope that the wind model is like a roulette wheel and maybe we'll get lucky at the local Sunday and beyond.

But yeah, I feel your pain, only been wet 3x this month.

 

my job depends on the weather...let see, it rained for 4 days...i think mon -thurs...it was suppose to be ok wednesday and thursday and it rained...they were 500. In fact, they couldnt get it right the day before.

so I guess, surf prediction, like weather, can be a crap shoot since they are directly related...but i must admit, swellinfo has been fairly accurate enough to get an idea a bit in advance compared to others. I primarily use swell and surfline, but I prefer swell. Hate when someone is trying to suck some coin out of me for extras, when I can get the same info for free from other sites, with regards to surf casting.

 

Fnmoc

I have found the long range FNMOC to be very accurate, they constantly update and adjust accordingly. This image shows Oct 6th and looks off the chain

 

Days and days of ripping ENE winds is pretty lame for surf, but a good thing IMO.
Get all this F'n sand outta here!!!!

 

Dropped Surfline premium recently; cams down all the time, ISP reasons mainly. They've also cut out so many other things it's not worth it anymore.

 

I did the same thing and just use the app now. Can watch 30 seconds at a time and then a little advertisement.

 

mmm i can taste the sexism. Actually Katie does a decent job. It's the new dudes that have been screwing up the forecast. I recently emailed Mike (watson, as in IBM or pro golfer) about these blown forecasts and he gave me a B.S response so I subsequently dropped them like Mr. Tropic. Turns out Surflie uses the GFS to predict waves so take it as you will. It's a tropical system, it's gonna be unpredictable. This is exactly why I've given up a credit score to live at the beach. Turns out human beings still haven't figured out how to tell the future yet!

 

Paying Surfline to forecast surf - is like paying hookers not to blow you.

 

6-9 ft oh here in chuck next wed can you say Vacation day!!!

 

NE winds up in barryland, but there will be surf goddamnit. I'll take poundy sloppy beach break any day over utter flatness. Plus with a NE wind up here there are some clean options. I haven't surfed in a couple of weeks, so I'm pumped.

 

SirLancelot, Nice & Thx. Do you have a direct link to this particular data product?

I was looking around http://www.usno.navy.mil/FNMOC, but their security certificate is out of date and my browser (firefox) was giving lots of warnings.

Thanks in advance.

 

I didn't mean to offend you Yankee, regardless, in my region, the two new college bros (who I don't even remember their names b/c they've already been replaced) have royally effed up the forecast several times now, and I don't plan on listening to these kooks advice anymore.

Here's a little context, and it should also shed light as to why I was so surprised you called out Katie and not these two clowns.


"I am currently a surfline premium member and live in Melbourne, FL, also known as the "Central Florida" region on Surfline. For about 3-4 days in advance of the Hermine swell getting to Florida, the forecast was "Fair-Good". This perplexed me as every single model available showed moderate onshore winds in the 10-15 knot range and choppy surf for Tuesday.

Now I have been a member for some years now, and never have I seen a forecast rated "Good" with onshore winds being predicted. In fact, if there are onshore winds, it is generally forecasted to be poor or poor-fair.

I ask you now why the forecast was inaccurately called even a day before the swell hit? Forgive me if I'm wrong but we have plenty of 4-6 foot onshore days down here in Florida that simply do not get the nod for fair conditions, let alone "good" even though the size is there.

I also noticed you hired a new forecaster to your team. This is great, as I'm sure you guys are hiring the best and brightest. "

 

And then Mike's Reply...

"I am also here in the Melbourne Beach area, so good to here from someone nearby. We do have some new guys on the weekend shifts. The way we enter ratings - it is possible that the rating was a mistake/oversight in the data entry - but I cannot be 100% sure. I will reach out to our weekend forecaster on duty.

You are right - head high and 4-6' with onshores is generally capped at poor or p-f and almost never above that with these types of winds.

We sincerely hope you reconsider. We work hard to bring the most accurate and timely info every single day. I think you will see that this sort of thing was either a 'one-off' sort of thing or just a mistake in the data entry."

Yeah VAS= "good conditions" GTFO, how can you, the "premiere" site for surf forecasting hire someone who is that bad at calling the surf?

 

That's the best you got? You stated his sexism, he blows you out of the water, and you offer this? He is so right. All these meaningless words. If she sucks, she sucks, but you cannot say thatbecause she is a woman.i didn't mean to offend you is as pc a non-apology as your twisted judgement of yankee's critique of the stupid ass forecaster who is a woman.your brain is mush your heart is twisted your gut does not exist.just say this, i am sorry yankee, i was wrong, that was not sexism and have some balls, they like cornstarch.

 

He didn't say WHY ( facts, substance, etc...SUPPORTING EVIDENCE) she sucks, whereas I at least tried to prove why she's not as bad as some of these other guys.

Unless "there is literally nothing of value, nor accuracy by extrapolation, in the woman's babbling jargon" is considered facts than by god am I glad not to be part of y'all's enclave.

 

Dude, she sucks, they all do.

 

NAM wind models within 24hrs are all you can count on and sometimes even they get it wrong.

 

To be honest, most sites haven't been very accurate. Being able to check it and surf it every day and compare it to what was forecasted and also what is being reported live has taught me that they are guessing 99% of the time. They are almost always off by a foot or three, and the wind is almost always different making the quality different than they claim. In fact, the live report sometimes seems as if they didn't even look at any data and just made some sh*t up.