This is looking like the storm Barry and others have been rooting for. I thought TS Matthew deserved its own named thread. Here is the current mulling over by flhurricane.com: "Quick summary this morning, the GFS hasn't changed much and keeps it out to sea past the Bahamas, although it does take it slightly closer to North Carolina than before next Thursday, although shifting east of Jamaica (although still uncomfortably close) and going over the eastern tip of Cuba on Monday. Euro operational is further east, and takes it over Haiti on Tuesday, generally trending east. The ensembles have also shifted east, but still are quite spread out. (Which still is a great measure of the level of uncertainty that far out) Takeaway, Haiti, Jamaica, eastern Cuba may be in for a hurricane Monday/Tuesday, as well as parts of the central or Eastern Bahamas, beyond that too soon to tell, but the trends are good it stays east of US currently, but will have to be watched to see when the "turn" occurs and how fast/slow the system is moving. "
east and last run 6am gfs pushes it back west, east then west, west then east, east then back to the west, west then east, back to the west, back to the east...7 days out is just an educated guess.
Right now the 7 day fantasy-cast has NE hitting 17' next Friday, mostly from a gale fetch that extends out 1000 or so miles ahead of Matthew. I haven't seen a forecast that big in a *long* time, even if it only exists in the realm of pixies and fairy dust. Winds look relentless however.
Starting to be a believer that this is gonna put up some excellent surf for the E coast. Could be good from S Fla all the way to Maine. Giggidy.
With the 2 pm update Matthew is a hurricane. So far seems to mostly be following the track forecsats. We'll probably be in the cone of death at some point but as long as he makes that northward turn this weekend I won't be ordering any Chinese food.
"Recon has found lower pressure and stronger winds bringing Matthew officially to hurricane status. It's facing some shear so in the short term it is unlikely to strengthen much, but in the next day or two conditions may improve enough for it to reach major hurricane status. Tropical Storm Watches are effect for Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba which may be close enough to Matthew to feel some effects from it, although the storm is forecast to stay north of those islands."
Air Force recon found 87 mph winds inside Matthew with a pressure of 993mb and dropping. This guy is big...if you look at radar it looks as big as Florida at this point. For long time Floridians who remember 2004, we are at the anniversary of Francis on the lunar calendar, and a week before Jeanne on lunar calendar.
Almost definite...99% out to sea...should be huge surf for the right coast as long as winds cooperate...no landfall, OBX may get brushed.
this evenings GFS model animation showing just that...still too early...but its nice to see a trend of out to sea on the major models.
Here is my theory on hurricane forecasting, and swell forecasting in general. If its 7 days out, you can pretty much bet that the forecast will be wrong. A day or two out, things get pretty clear... But a week out, I'm putting money on the forecast being drastically different.
Mary Lee says it will be pumping: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/south-carolina/article104609016.html
Now at Cat 2 with 105 mph winds and quickly spinning up. Should be a major hurricane before it makes landfall. Not crazy aboot the track shift to the left. Currently right on the edge of the cone of death. I've got the Chinese food place on speed dial just in case.
SI forecast for this area showing a peak of 14ft @13 seconds ENE swell at 7pm Wednesday night..... with 31mph NNW winds. YIKES
