Tropics: NHC following a promising system

As of 2:00 pm EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 ...
A low pressure system located about 850 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a small area of showers
and thunderstorms to the west of the center.

This system still has the potential to become a tropical depression before it moves
west-northwestward into a drier and more stable air mass during the
next day or two.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

 

It is now TD 4. But check out wave coming off Africa. Will start a tread on it

 

TD #4 dissipated , like an SI forum that only loads slowly.
Some think the remains should be watched. The TD, not the forum.

 

TD #4 dissipated , like an SI forum that only loads slowly.
Some think the remains should be watched. The TD, not the forum.

 

Flhurricane.com: 9:30 post:

"Model runs for east wave:

GFS Para doesn't really develop it and smashes it into South America.

0z Euro isn't developing it either.

GFS has it as a hurricane over the leewards friday night into Saturday, between Jamaica and Haiti on Tuesday July 18th, over Cuba on the 19th, moves through the western Bahamas on the 20th, gains strength and Landfalls near Wilmington NC on July 21st as a major hurricane, cuts inland through north Carolina, over DC on Sat the 22nd, and moves quickly though New England. (the prior 0z run had the system slowly moving up the spine of Florida starting July 20th as a major) --

Reminder that far out, especially with a system that hasn't developed yet, it doesn't mean much other than something may be worth watching that week, more interested in how it trends over time and the upper air steering pattern.

In short GFS is being hyperactive (again), something to watch but nothing guaranteed, similar to what TD#4 was.

1:30 pm post:

and the 1zz GFS keeps it weaker and moves west all the way through the Caribbean into the Yucatan. (huge difference from North Carolina last run)

The trend is weaker now,and with other models being weak as well, that's the more likely scenario at this point, but still nearly 2 weeks our.

Another tool to look at is the ensembl member surface pressure map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...os=0&ypos=0 which shows how large the spread is with the GFSmembers."

 

NHC following Former TD 4 again. Recon scheduled. May have developed closed center. Likely a rainmaker for Fl until it exits into Gulf.

Being followed as Invest 04

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=4&year=2017&title=04

 

flhurricane.com:

"
No models develop ex-td#4 in the 12Z run, although the Euro is stronger than the others when it enters the eastern Gulf and approaches Louisiana (Florida rain would be Thursday night into Friday) it does develop it before landfall in Southeastern Louisiana on Sunday.

The system is re-firing storms again this afternoon."

 

It's gone againe, like a bad boyfriend who shows just enough interest to look promising, and then fades away againe, over and over until you finally cut him loose.