As of 2:00 am EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 ... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to show signs of organization. While this system does not yet appear to have a closed circulation, only a slight increase in organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression before upper-level winds become less favorable for development early next week. The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Personally, will put up half my shutters this weekend. And keep them up. This may eventually dissipate, but with this high activity level thiscoming month, they may eventually become necessary.
Seems like the NHC is naming storms after the noises my stomach makes after I eat a huge plate of Mexican food.
As of 2:00 pm EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 ... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 600 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands continues to show signs of organization. However, upper-level winds are becoming less favorable, and the chances for a tropical cyclone to form are diminishing. The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Flhurricane.com: " Since we are on a forecast lounge and speculation is expected, I see 92L this way based on current sat. representations (see the WV loop). It is highly possible that the current low level circulation that exists in 92L could be inhibited by a very vigorous ULL that seems to be digging down into the circulation around the low.. it is also possible that 92L could slide westward beneath this upper low. In short, the future of this system should be clearer in the next day or so and seems to be dependent on its interaction with that ULL. Should it survive that then a more real threat will exist. I think this is the factor that has kept the two more reliable models cautious on this system."
ULL, WTF? I always thought lows attract lows, that once a trough is established by a low pressure system that travels, like a router thru wood, that makes a following low use the same path, unless a front from the north intercedes and puts the lid on it. What the heck does an Upper Level Low do? Why would it inhibit a following system. Does it suck the top off the following storm, making the surface remnants wobble around like a chicken without a head? That's the way I interpret the meteorology. Anyone know?
Non tropical surface lows can reinforce one another. But were talking tropical here. Tropical systems depend on rising air near the center to feed the convection. Upper level high pressure (usually accomanied by calm winds) in the upper atmosphere actually supports the outflow of air that allows a tropical system underneath to breathe. Upper Level Lows inhibit the rising air that tropical systems underneath need to breath and also tend to shear off the tops of the thunderstorms that feed energy into tropical systems. You need divergence in the upper levels High pressure systems aloft create diverge
models tonight kind of making this system Gert 2.0!! same basic track same uptick in intensity as it comes north
Thanks for the charts Mitchell. That makes me think of when we get a High above a Low. There is the clockwise rotation of the High and if it is above a Low that is rotating counterclockwise, you have a pressure gradient between the two, that points somewhere that will get swell. If the two pressure systems are far enough offshore, local weather can clean it up on a good day. I love pressure systems.
Glad ya'll are getting mo' swell. My favorite Uncle, Stan The Man, lives in OCMD. If work wasn't so intense right now, I'd be headed up to score some waves and crab cakes.
I don't get how they name these storms,always using some weird names every few years lol.hurricane gurt,cant say I know any gurts.now Irma lol I want to see hurricane tony or tropical storm bob,maybe even a hurricane betty
NOAA GFS model for a week from today showing Irma right where Gert was last week. Getting a second solid hurricane swell in two weeks in August is probably too good to be true. But the pattern is there for something good to happen.
