rance Eastern North Pacific Atlantic Disturbance 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 3:40 pm EDT Sun May 13 2018 ... A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days. For more information on this system, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
“This area in the Gulf of Mexico has gotten itself together fairly quickly, and the NHC issued a special tropical weather outlook with a 40% chance for tropical or subtropical development. The biggest story here will be rainfall, upwards of 5-6 inches in parts of the Florida peninsula. This system isn't purely tropical now, but it could become a small tropical storm before it would eventually landfall (probably somewhere in the Panhandle Wednesday or Thursday) However, most of the rainfall energy will be well to the east, which should drive the rainy weather toward the Florida peninsula. 5-6 inches in a few places, possibly. There are signals of increased divergence aloft, which is what would be needed for something tropical or subtropical to form in the system. Shear is still fairly strong, but weakening a bit, with both the GFS and European models showing this area developing into a tropical or subtropical storm in three days or so” —Flhurricane.com
“ On the heels of what will likely soon be designated Invest 90L (the presently non-tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico), several models' runs have been lukewarm to bullish on cooking up a stronger cyclone in its wake, and one with much more tropical DNA, and the region is, for reasons that will be discussed below, looking favorable in the back half of this month. While this 'future cyclone' feature has not yet formed, odds favor development of a solid tropical disturbance at a minimum, one which could easily affect land and ocean interests in the western Caribbean and/or Gulf of Mexico within the next 5-15 days, so we're starting a Lounge. Yes, this is somewhat unusual, as we normally wait for a disturbance to have existed before doing so. Suffice it say, we have time to keep a watchful eye on this potential future cyclone. This could be a significant system, on a relative basis. No hurricanes of record have made landfall along the Gulf coast states during the month of May.” -flhurricane.com
Well, with some good luck, maybe this early storm will herald in a lot of OFFSHORE storms for the East Coast, with plenty of fetch and no damage to coastal communities. Well, I can dream, can't I?
“ Models this mroning are keeping the area generally weak, but with some chance for development. There is a lot of moisture and definite spin to this one, though. The Euro is now showing the West. Caribbean system that the GFS hinted at in the long range for May 24th-later or so, which may also be worth watching toward the end of next week. ” -flhurricane.com NHC had predicted 18 named storms this coming hurricane season.
I opened up SI this morning, and this brings a smile to my face. After reading the who's been surfing threade with everyone having a week of surf, while good to hear some stoke, made me start to jones. Now we have a few days of bump coming up as well this potential. Waves, rain, and a little, not too much, wind would be great right about now. A few days of surf would be welcome relief from the past couple of weeks. Keep the good news coming Betty
Barry, the only way to be sure is for you to sacrifice one of your boards by setting it on fire and posting a video of it here to appease the swellinfo gods. The more expensive the board, the more they will be pleased...don't let this moment pass you by so that you spend your final days thinking what if..
I've been hearing from my Floridian friends that they've been getting pissed on with rain all day, and it's supposed to be like that all week. And not much surf to be had for the ones that do surf, although one of them does live down in Delray Beach, which is like the flatlands of surfing. We do seem to get our first named storm in May more than occasionally.
Which one of the three?? The longboard, the Egg, or the Magic?? If you say the Magic, a very dark cloud will come over your home and throw lightnings aplenty towards you!!! It would be better if I simply draw a Pentangle on the floor, stand on it, and chant, "i summons thee"!!
Yeah it rained all day and then let up around dinner and then again later in the night and into the morning. There is a little swell out there, wind and tide aren’t ideal though at the moment. Maybe after work if there is a break between storms.
Was driving to Mexico 2 years ago and somehow the stars aligned and was passing through the panhandle right when TS Colin was pumping swell. 2 days of great clean chest to very solid surf in the Gulf....Insane. Honestly the waves were better than anything we had the 1st four days in Mex. Doing it again this summer ......maybe a repeat ?????
yea, i passed on it when it was chilly, cloudy n hungover after a wedding. they got waist to chest n i wasn't believing any of it until i saw the pics the next day. like the 4x of the year the gulf gets good, i passed. pretty stupid of me. getting the rain this afternoon, already seeing chop in the water n hoping for the balance of no tstorms n less chop to make my trek out to la playa
This is the time of the year that SwellInfo gets interesting, because you Right Coasters get all surf starved and start getting cranky with each other on this board. I swear you can totally set your fancy tide watch to it. And then early Fall rolls around and a couple of 'cane swells hit and it's kumbaya all over againe. Gotta love this place
Yep, rained all day here yesterday. Today there is a very small 1 ft south line but not really breaking. Looking forward to some fun gulf surf with my son this year. Hopefully nothing as close as last year. I nearly lost everything but it's all properly insured so whatayagonnado.