T.S.Alberto forms

We have Alberto in the Gulf.


“The dry air entrainment isn't enough to keep models from suggesting a cat 1 at landfall. The german Icon model for 12Z is out and it shows a 989mb hurricane landfalling in Pascagoula, MS Monday night. Forward motion starts falling apart Sunday night based on that one.”
Flhurricane.com

 

Dear Buoys,

Alberto is a warm up exercise, And an early sign of a possibly hyperactive storm season.

Sincerely yours,
Forecaster Betty

P.S. Here is the thread that shows the Swell info forum march toward Alberto
https://www.swellinfo.com/forum/threads/gulf-bound-system-may-be-developing.32475/

 

NHC 4 pm:

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.3 West. The storm
is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic
motion toward the north is expected tonight. From Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a general northward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected, followed by a turn toward the northwest
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with
little change in strength forecast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches)
based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft.

 

4 a.m. NHC update:



The subtropical storm has now turned north-northeastward at an
estimated speed of 6 kt. This general motion with a increase in
forward speed is expected throughout the day today, taking the
center of Alberto through the Yucatan Channel.

A turn to the northwest is forecast on Sunday as the storm rotates around a
developing mid- to upper-level low in the central Gulf of Mexico.

Alberto is predicted to be very near the northern Gulf Coast in
about 72 hours, and should then turn northward and northeastward
when it moves inland over the eastern U.S. The models are in
fairly good agreement this cycle, but they have trended a bit faster
from previous runs. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly, and lies fairly close to the latest consensus aids.

Only slow strengthening is expected today due to the broad nature
of the system and continued influences of westerly shear and dry
air.

There is an opportunity for more significant strengthening
tonight and Sunday when the shear is expected to lessen and
Alberto moves into a region of upper-level diffluence while it
remains over warm SSTs.

The models also suggest that Alberto will
likely make a transition to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and
that is reflected in the official forecast below. The official
intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and is in
line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

The HMON model is now the only intensity guidance that makes
Alberto a hurricane before it reaches the coast. Although a
hurricane watch could still be required for a portion of the Gulf
Coast later today, the recent intensity guidance trends suggest
that this possibility is decreasing.

 

From Flhurricane.com


“GFS has a strong TS or cat 1 hurricane going over Pensacola Monday night. The trend east is mostly brought on by the center being a bit difficult to get organized. It may shift east again, and is probably why the TS watches went up for Tampa. I wouldn't be surprised to see the big bend get them later today also.

The concensus model is actually closer to Fort Walton Beach, the globals are based on dubious center data, so the exact track is probably a bit off. The bad weather being mostly on the east side is what will cause crazy amounts of rain (already started in S. Florida, it'll creep up to central Florida tonight). Then rain all day Sunday. Points east of the landfall will get the worst of it. Points west will likely barely even know its there. It'll likely start getting really organized about midday tomorrow. “

 

Latest from flhurricane.com:


“The latest recon report with 997 is off the Northwest Tip of cuba, it also suggests Alberto is beinging to transition into a fully tropical storm. “

 

400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018, NHC

Before departing the storm, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft flew near the low-level cloud swirl that became apparent
in visible satellite imagery over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico late this morning.

Data from the plane indicate that the
center had reformed in that location and that the pressure had
fallen to 999 mb. The aircraft did not sample the area to the east
of the new center, but based on recent satellite classifications and
surface observations the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory.

The primary mechanism for intensification appears to be a shortwave
trough moving southeastward into the larger negatively tilted trough
over the eastern Gulf, which should cause a cutoff low to form
during the next 24 hours. This is expected to result in deepening
of Alberto while it moves generally northward over the Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

The shear is forecast to
decrease as Alberto become co-located with the upper-level low and
the system could transition to a more tropical cyclone-like
structure before landfall.

The NHC intensity forecast once again
calls for steady strengthening through 36 h, but shows little
strengthening after that time due to the possibility of dry air
intrusion.

The system has moved generally northward during the past 24 hours,
however, the reformation of the center today makes the initial
motion estimate more uncertain than normal.

Alberto should move
northward to north-northeastward tonight, and then turn
north-northwestward and decelerate on Sunday and Sunday night as
it moves around the eastern side of the trough/cutoff low. The
dynamical models remain in good agreement on this scenario but
have shifted eastward once again. The interpolated guidance models
lie a bit west of the model fields due to the more northwestward
1800 UTC initial position of Alberto. As a result, the NHC track is
along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope as a compromise
between the ECMWF/GFS model fields and trackers.

The new NHC track forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Florida
and a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday
and will continue into next week.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center. Residents in the warning and watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.