Major Hurricane Florence

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Aug 29, 2018.

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  1. Sep 1, 2018 #21
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
    numerous showers and thunderstorms from Hispaniola northward across
    the Turks and Caicos Islands. This activity is forecast to spread
    west-northwestward, enhancing rainfall across Hispaniola, the Turks
    and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas this weekend, and across Florida
    and the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by early next week.

    Strong
    upper-level winds will likely prevent significant development of
    this system during the next couple of days,

    but environmental
    conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for a
    surface low pressure area to form when the disturbance moves across
    the Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
     
    Betty, Sep 1, 2018
    Betty, Sep 1, 2018
  3. Sep 1, 2018 #22
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    Tropical Storm Florence emerges and expected to curve out to sea.
     
    Betty, Sep 1, 2018
    Betty, Sep 1, 2018

  5. Sep 1, 2018 #23
    ChavezyChavez

    ChavezyChavez Well-Known Member

    2,613
    Jun 20, 2011
    NARGH! Someone make it curve out to the West. Prease. It can curve out to sea all it wants AFTER it brings some swell.
     
    ChavezyChavez, Sep 1, 2018
    ChavezyChavez, Sep 1, 2018
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  6. Sep 1, 2018 #24
    Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    3,106
    Jan 5, 2009
    GFS model Forecasts have improved a LOT tonight, for east coast swell from this system. That blocking high off Newfoundland is our friend. If it gets this far west (30 N 60 W) as a strong 930 mb. hurricane, much of the east coast would get a dose of long period swell.

    [​IMG]
     
    Mitchell, Sep 1, 2018
    Mitchell, Sep 1, 2018
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  7. Sep 2, 2018 #25
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    NHC report shifts the storm a bit more west this morning, in response to heartfelt appeal from Chavez.

    Another vigorous wave exited off Africa today right behind Florence. Flhurricane reports that “several” more strong waves getting ready to exit Africa.
     
    Betty, Sep 2, 2018
    Betty, Sep 2, 2018
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  8. Sep 2, 2018 #26
    DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    17,845
    Mar 6, 2012
    The next 6-8 weeks will be busy with lots to pay attention to. It was just a matter of time.
     
    DawnPatrol321, Sep 2, 2018
    DawnPatrol321, Sep 2, 2018
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  9. Sep 2, 2018 #27
    Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    3,106
    Jan 5, 2009
    12 z GFS model has it coming west of 60 and northward near Bermuda.

    gfs_mslp_wind_eus_fh180-240 (1).gif
     
    Mitchell, Sep 2, 2018
    Mitchell, Sep 2, 2018
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  10. Sep 2, 2018 #28
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    Yes, and flhurricane.com notes the marked move to the west. They state that
    at this point, the “setup would require it to stay weaker to get further west, it looks like the euro went back toward the recurve idea this afternoon, so that may have been a fluke. However, it is getting dangerously close to Bermuda with this run. “
     
    Betty, Sep 2, 2018
    Betty, Sep 2, 2018
  11. Sep 3, 2018 #29
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    Flhurricane.com:


    “Models for Florence this morning, and west trend continues. This would mean those along the east coast and Bermuda will want to watch this next week if these trends continue.

    0Z Euro shows a pretty significant ridge forming as the system moves close the the US, on a direct approach to NC when the run ends.

    6Z GFS shows it recurving just east of Bermuda and staying out to sea (missing Canada also), which is a shift back east from yesterday evening's run.

    0z Canadian has cat 2 landfall near Morehead City, NC on late Wednesday Sept 12th.

    10 day Euro Ensembles show a pretty good spread along the southeast to mid Atlantic approach. Still lots of time to watch this system.”
     
    Betty, Sep 3, 2018
    Betty, Sep 3, 2018
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  12. Sep 4, 2018 #30
    Cwhite

    Cwhite Well-Known Member

    588
    May 19, 2006
    Cwhite, Sep 4, 2018
    Cwhite, Sep 4, 2018
    Betty likes this.
  13. Sep 4, 2018 #31
    Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    3,106
    Jan 5, 2009
    Euro and GFS models have flip-flopped and now the Euro (which had been taking Florence into the east coast) now takes Florence curves out to sea east of Bermuda next Monday, while the GFS recurves Florence west of Bermuda and later.

    Monday 9/10/18 Euro:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 9/12/18 GFS:
    [​IMG]
     
    Mitchell, Sep 4, 2018
    Mitchell, Sep 4, 2018
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  14. Sep 4, 2018 #32
    Sir_Ballyhoo

    Sir_Ballyhoo Well-Known Member

    609
    Mar 8, 2018
    Sir_Ballyhoo, Sep 4, 2018
    Sir_Ballyhoo, Sep 4, 2018
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  15. Sep 4, 2018 #33
    headhigh

    headhigh Well-Known Member

    2,985
    Jul 17, 2009
    Damn man this just got a lot more interesting. Need to go start my chainsaw and generator for the first time in a year...
     
    headhigh, Sep 4, 2018
    headhigh, Sep 4, 2018
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  16. Sep 4, 2018 #34
    MrBigglesworth

    MrBigglesworth Well-Known Member

    1,390
    Jun 29, 2018
    1785B14E-DEC0-47B1-948B-1D6DDB345851.jpeg 09CD5A0A-49A7-4250-A25D-DE7824717FAB.png E3B5B3C3-F1FB-4538-A836-9141BB454D9B.png This was last year’s first hurricane swell last late summer, fall up here. That was two days after storm I believe - mmmmmmmmmmm... fetch swells. We surfed for a week
     
    MrBigglesworth, Sep 4, 2018
    MrBigglesworth, Sep 4, 2018
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  17. Sep 5, 2018 #35
    UnfurleD

    UnfurleD Well-Known Member

    1,238
    Jul 13, 2016
    dang, trop tiddle bitties has this thing cruising the midAtlantic. thought this was gonna remain at sea but what up!
     
    UnfurleD, Sep 5, 2018
    UnfurleD, Sep 5, 2018
    Betty likes this.
  18. Sep 5, 2018 #36
    MrBigglesworth

    MrBigglesworth Well-Known Member

    1,390
    Jun 29, 2018
    That would be perfect! Far enough out so no ones shit gets wrecked, but close enough to throw some nice big long period swell at us for a stretch
     
    MrBigglesworth, Sep 5, 2018
    MrBigglesworth, Sep 5, 2018
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  19. Sep 5, 2018 #37
    headhigh

    headhigh Well-Known Member

    2,985
    Jul 17, 2009
    There's always one model run that sends it right up the Cape Fear River.
    upload_2018-9-5_9-37-32.png
     
    headhigh, Sep 5, 2018
    headhigh, Sep 5, 2018
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  20. Sep 5, 2018 #38
    CJsurf

    CJsurf Well-Known Member

    1,552
    Apr 28, 2014
    The models for Florence have been all over the place. This morning the ECMWF model has it making a direct landfall just South of Myrtle Beach on the 13th and the GFS model has it of NJ and looping back on itself. This is one the models don't have a lot of agreement on long term and every day the models seem to change a lot. My thought it the storm is already well north of the zone that would typically give the east coast a close brush or a direct hit that it will head well north and stay East of Bermuda.
     
    CJsurf, Sep 5, 2018
    CJsurf, Sep 5, 2018
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  21. Sep 5, 2018 #39
    headhigh

    headhigh Well-Known Member

    2,985
    Jul 17, 2009
    I like the loop back scenario. Let's do that.

    I think it was September of last year that that happened and it just pumped swell for a month? Seems so long ago...
     
    headhigh, Sep 5, 2018
    headhigh, Sep 5, 2018
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  22. Sep 5, 2018 #40
    NJsurfer30

    NJsurfer30 Well-Known Member

    200
    Dec 28, 2016
    Pretty sure it was Jose that did a full loop last year. It was something like 10 days total that we got swell from it here in NJ. Immediately preceded and followed by other tropical swell as well.
     
    NJsurfer30, Sep 5, 2018
    NJsurfer30, Sep 5, 2018
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