Vie Disturbance 1: 80% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 5 Days As of 8:00 am EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 ... A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
From Flhurricane.com: The 0z Euro now forms something in the Gulf late Thursday, and then moves potentially a category 1/2 hurricane into Texas just north of Houston Saturday night. The GFS moves a much weaker rain system into Corpus Christi Saturday night. The older legacy GFS model has switched from the east route and also moves the rain into Texas near Corpus. The Canadian has shifted further west, but brings the storm back onto the Panhandle after forming in the Gulf. The UKMet and German ICON model move it into the Eastern Louisiana, although the ICON is much stronger (cat 2) than the UK (Tropical Storm)
Yep - welcome to the new improved Swellinfo, where the latest surf forecasts not only provide no information but also haven't been updated in weeks.
Betty, please work your magic. It would be swell if we could get a nice TS or low 1 that hovers a bit in the Gulf, then moves past quickly. We could really use some waves, but our neighbors to the west don't need rain, and the ones to the east don't need anymore wind. Hope its not too much to ask
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad low pressure area located over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds across portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Upper Texas coasts, and interests there should closely monitor its progress. In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
FLHurricane.com: Tropical cyclogenesis is now underway, with 92L still gliding further offshore, and over progressively warmer waters. It is close to certain that advisories will begin today, Wednesday, or Thursday at the very latest. The 0z model runs strongly suggest a Houston to New Orleans landfall, but this is still very much uncertain. Recon missions will help, and model runs out Thursday should be more reliable. A Major Hurricane at landfall is not out of the question, as is just a very, very wet high-end Tropical Storm, so we really need this recon data to help tease out subtleties that exist now, but which could have outsized influence down the road.
