2010 Hurricane Outlook

Surfline released their annual Hurricane outlook to kick off the start of the 2010 hurricane season which began June 1st. Im not a real big surfline guy, but I do feel that they do a very good job of breaking down the factors that go into the seasonal outlooks. In case you dont feel like reading the whole article or are unfamiliar with the the vocabulary, it basically gives a promising outlook. Water temperatures are above average, and post El Nino conditions diminishes the amount of wind shear. Wind Shear essentially removes heat and moisture, which is bad for storm formation (rule of thumb wind shear must be less than 20 knots for storm formation, anything under 10 knots can lead to rapid intensification).

"The second is El Niño transitioning to La Niña and the third includes El Niño transition to either neutral or La Niña state for the current warm AMO phase that began around the mid 90's."..... This basically is saying that the Atlantic is currently in a "warming" cycle and that this warming helps contribute to storm formation via warmer waters - which is did in the mid 1990s (guess all the old heads who claimed the hurricane seasons in the mid 90s as being the best aren't crazy after all)

SIMPLY PUT
Warm water + Weak wind shear = favorable conditions for storm formation.

Also, for those of us who live along the mid-Atlantic / and Northeastern regions, Weather Services International (WSI) is calling for a greater chance of Hurricanes/Storms reaching the region. "Further, WSI’s hurricane landfall forecasting model (developed in collaboration with reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter) suggests that the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year." Read the full story HERE

That all being said.... Am I allowed to get excited???? Is the year to purchase a new step up board? Plan the roadtrip from FL to RI following the swell???

...Only time will tell, at this point all we can do is speculate

P.S
My guesstimate is as follows:

Total Storms: 22
Total Hurricanes: 9
Major Hurricanes (>cat3):3

 

Surprising I've never traveled up north for Hurricane swell, always south to OBX. I've been told by many that Long Island and Rhode Island are a worthwhile trip during a big swell.