So I know this guy is still wayyyyy out there, but..... From Jeff Masters Wunderground Blog: Model Forecasts and Climatology The latest 2pm EDT (18Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models show 90L developing into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. These models suggest that 90L will pass well northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 18Z GFS model develops 90L into a tropical storm about 7 days from now, and forecasts a track through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. The 18Z NOGAPS and 12Z ECMWF models show little development of 90L. The GFDL and HWRF models are too aggressive developing 90L, and likely show too much of a northward motion due to excessive depth of the system they portray. The GFS solution, showing a more delayed development and possible threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands is probably more reasonable. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 36% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Saturday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but these odds suggest that 90L has the potential to become a dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane that will affect land.
So I was just reading StormW's blog, and apparently there is another thunderstorm developing into a tropical wave on the African continent which may interact with the current system 90L. And no development should happen through Saturday. We shall see... And these were StormW's parting words this morning: I am still looking for an increase and ramp up in activity, most likely late in the week of the 9th of August. As I suspect October may be above average in terms of development, We should see a fairly active 2 1/2 months. Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Saturday. "Storm"
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA Check 300 hours out (August 10th)....looks like an intense line of tropical waves in the forecast.... I see what storm is talking about
Whoa, that looks like it'll be a fun couple of weeks mid august to mid september! And hopefully 90L does what those maps show.
PERFECT!... I just make plans last night for a surf getaway for mid/late August. Looks like we could all score, though, no matter where you are. But I've been to this spot for a hurricane swell before, and it's pretty amazing... literally got of the plane and took a cab directly to the beach. Hopefully, we'll all be out of harm's way, but reap the rewards of sticking it out during the dog days of summer. This is what we live for...
90l now combined with what is 91l. nhc is giving it an 80 percent chance of develooping into a storm next 2 days. paths are looking pretty promising so lets hope
I'm liking the track for this guy ....lets hope he stays on the eastern side of the projected path http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201091_model.html
Waves Aug 14 I could have forecast waves on 8/14 about two months ago... it was the day my wife bought tickets for the family reunion
Now it's updated to Trop Depression Four.... Here's the updated path according to Wunderground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201004_5day.html#a_topad And here's the updated path according to NOAA: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents Wunderground and NOAA has this staying at a Trop Storm through Saturday. Maybe this will be a TS Cristobal situation, where it skips up the coast? Get a 1.5 day window to surf it? We'll see.
http://https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NGP/2010080212/ngp10.sgwvht.180.atlantic.gif screw it, lets just jinx it so much we MAKE it happen. anyway,...if the link worked,.. you would see that the speculation IS warranted.
