Summer Swell/Weather Predictability

Discussion in 'Mid Atlantic' started by mOtion732, Jun 22, 2011.

  1. mOtion732

    mOtion732 Well-Known Member

    Sep 18, 2008
    Winter swells are predicted with such great accuracy that it seems you can know the swell direction, size and the exact time the wind goes offshore almost a week out. Conversely, in the summer, swell and weather forecasts change multiple times/day and if you're not all over it, you can miss a swell entirely.

    What makes it so much easier to predict weather in the winter compared to the summer?
     
  2. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    Hmmm... I don't really think it is easier to predict swells in the winter.
     

  3. mOtion732

    mOtion732 Well-Known Member

    Sep 18, 2008
    Really? I feel like there will be a swell forecast in the winter a week in advance and it basically would hold up with little or no change.

    This weekend's forecast has changed every day since it came up
     
  4. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    I see your point... But, the change in the upcoming south swell, is basically because it is one of those S/SW swells, where a change in the track which creates more W in the swell has a big influence for this region. This happens a lot in the winter too, all though the storm systems are generally much stronger in the winter and maybe a little easier to track as they move across the country.
     
  5. mOtion732

    mOtion732 Well-Known Member

    Sep 18, 2008
    OK, then the follow up question would be, why would a standard SE swell generally be much stronger and produce bigger, thicker and stronger waves in the winter vs. summeR?
     
  6. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    The frontal systems are stronger in the winter for the Northern Hemisphere, because the temperature gradient from North to South is greater. This also allows the jet stream to drop down further with potential for storms to dip into the Gulf of Mexico moisture/energy source.
     
  7. Sniffer

    Sniffer Well-Known Member

    Sep 20, 2010
    Cold Water holds more energy than warm water.
     
  8. lbsurfer

    lbsurfer Well-Known Member

    226
    Apr 20, 2009
    lmao don't give him stupid answers, he actually wants to know
     
  9. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    incorrect.
     
  10. GoodVibes

    GoodVibes Well-Known Member

    Jun 29, 2008
    True Dat,Look when Hurricane season is.
     
  11. LBCrew

    LBCrew Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2009
    Just to clarify what sniffer said, cold water is more dense, packing more punch. So a 3ft wave in warm water has less kinetic energy than a 3ft wave in cold water. Studies have shown erosion rates of rocky coastlines are higher in cold water regions than warm water regions... same rock type, same average wave size.
     
  12. mOtion732

    mOtion732 Well-Known Member

    Sep 18, 2008
    compare a solid winter swell to a solid hurricane swell. the winter swell is almost ALWAYS bigger and especially heavier.
     
  13. Sniffer

    Sniffer Well-Known Member

    Sep 20, 2010
    It is a fact...look it up.
     
  14. Sniffer

    Sniffer Well-Known Member

    Sep 20, 2010
    I think you need to stop using single letters for words and maybe pick up a book to learn something new.
     
  15. mOtion732

    mOtion732 Well-Known Member

    Sep 18, 2008
    what are you even talking about
     
  16. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    The warmer the water is, the more latent heat is released into the atmosphere, which is the process by which tropical storms develop. Frontal system low pressure systems, however behave differently then tropical storms, and latent heat isn't required for frontal systems to develop and strengthen.
     
  17. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    The temperature of the water, does influence the density of the water, but not only minimally influences wave energy traveling through the water. The lower the temperature, the less dense the h20 molecules become. Just think of an ice cube floating to the top of your glass of water.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2011
  18. LBCrew

    LBCrew Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2009
    The confusion is over the KIND of energy you're talking about. Kinetic energy (relating to water density, motion, and the force created as the wave breaks... which surfers refer to as "heaviness") vs. heat energy. Clearly, warm water has more heat energy, and that relates to what Swellinfo is talking about.
     
  19. rDJ

    rDJ Well-Known Member

    355
    Jul 23, 2007
    As Swellinfo stated: Water temperature is directly proportional to kinetic energy. In other words, when temperature increases, kinetic energy increases.


    http://zonalandeducation.com/mstm/p...gy/heatAndTemperature/heatAndTemperature.html


    "Temperature directly relates to the kinetic energy of the molecules.

    Temperature can be measured in a variety of units.

    If you measure it in degrees Kelvin, then the temperature value is directly proportional to the average kinetic energy of the molecules in the substance.

    Notice we did not say that temperature is the kinetic energy. We said it is a number, if in degrees Kelvin, that is proportional to the average kinetic energy of the molecules of a substance. That means if you double the Kelvin temperature of a substance, you double the average kinetic energy of its molecules.

    When the average kinetic energy of the molecules goes up (a rise in temperature), the average speed of the molecules increases. A change in average kinetic energy is not directly proportional to a change in average speed."

    -------------------------
     
  20. rDJ

    rDJ Well-Known Member

    355
    Jul 23, 2007
    How does one measure "heaviness"