Why did you name the thread "Long Range Forecast" then? You tried to act like you knew what you were talking about with your "bathymetric anomalies" comment, but it just made you look like more of an idiot. As always, thanks for the info Micah.
if you want to blame a site for false forecasting go to magic seaweed. their long range forecast is always at least double the actual swell height. i remember last year they were calling earl 15 feet at one point and by the way i often find surfline's forecast to be extremely vague for most new jersey spots, most of which don't even have a forecast. swellinfo provides a detailed, comprehensive forecast that in my opinion, is always just as accurate if not more than surfline's
All emilys models show that it will turn away from the coast, does this mean it almost defintely 99% chance will?
Hey cant beat free and so what if they are off sometimes... They save me lots off gas money!!!!! plus there are cams every where you can check at day break. If you know how to search and find them... Also try using three or four surf forcasting pages that are free.. There are plenty of them and if you cant figure out between them which days to head to the beach shame on you and better for me less crowds in the water!!!!!!
Watched the 7:50am TWC Tropical Report. The topic of discussion was the attempt to reconcile the GFS and GFDL models different forecast tracks. The reporter mentioned how the forecast tracks had been bouncing all over the place. Of course, that isn't unusual 7 days out...
Yes, there are quite a lot of variations between all models right now. Click here to see the different model tracks: http://www.swellinfo.com/tropical/index.html?&forecast=plotsystemmodels&storms=&usemap=AUTO2&zoom=1&pn=1®ion=NT&year=2011&eventnum=5&hwvstormid=5&size=
I think this website is great! I appreciate other people's hard work. It's real easy to sit around and criticize. That takes nuffin.