Agreed...I would check out swell info Dot Com...Oh yeah, we're already there! What would Sean Collins Say?
models range monday goes from 15 mph wind depression in west florida gulf to 129 mph off Hatteras,or somewhere in-between.interesting enough to see.
Is it still too early to start getting really excited for this? I know Micah said 48 hours out is when we get the best projection. The model is showing category 1 right around NC but I still feel like some if this is wishful thinking.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts on this system repeatedly have said their uncertainty of this storm surviving as it moves over Haiti/Dominican Republic... Right now, it is still very ragged. There is certainly potential... But hurricane forecasts are just not so great, especially when moving over islands.
Definately a tough one to forecast...look at the satellite loop now.... The convection isnt colocated with the center of circulation, and the storm is still south of DR/Haiti and moving west. When is it going to turn? http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater
ya, the storm is hurting to maintain a center of circulation. Unless it gets its act together, it may fizzle.
if the storm survives over hispaniola, it might do what Bret did and stay out of the swell window for the mid atlantic. granite, Bret wasn't a very strong storm, however its all about placement.
Respectfully, I disagree with everyone's negative view of Magic Seaweed. I find it to be very useful if you know how to interpret the data. You can't take what it says as literal surf heights like swellinfo, and most other surf predictions. However if you know how to interpret swell data for the breaks you frequent, there's alot of good stuff there. For example, swellinfo takes into account swell height and period, and then the graphic/prediction shows you wave heights. Magic seaweeds graphics show you swell height, and tells you the period, but it doesn't predict the actual wave height. You have to do that last step, but it does give you a lot of raw data. I find it especially useful for predicting small stuff. Sometimes other sites that do all the work for you will basically be predicting it to be knee high, when the swell/period combination might actually produce a waist high wave at certain breaks, if you'r familiar with how the breaks respond. Then again I'm a little older, and I used to have to interpret weather data to get a decent forecast. Don't get me wrong, I'm not taking anything away from this site. I'm a huge fan. But I just think Magic seaweed is good for what it is.
but isn't the swell height usually smaller than the actual wave height? so when msw is predicting 10 foot swell height, they really mean 15 foot+ wave height. and swellinfo does take into account the period; days with a larger swell height but lower period can be just as small or smaller than days with a smaller swell height but higher period.
you guys all say how its always predicted 10000000000000000000000000000ft bigger than it realy is but if you look at it says what?! the same *3* ft as swell info? i prefer swellinfo but now its the same
I really like Magicseaweed. They provide much more data. A friend of mine did a lengthy study between the Swellinfo and MSW and determined the MSW forecast was correct much more often. He came up with some percentage chart showing MSW prediction being correct 90% of the time.
idk they may have improved it, but the last time i used that site was during earl and it was predicting 18 foot+ swell heigh for new jersey. earl was big, but not that big
not tryn to start something. if you know the date that the swell happened there is a "historic forcast" tracker. it shows excatly what they predicted
Well...you guys in Ocean City, New Jersey better be careful if MSWs forecast for sunday comes true: Sun 08/7 6am 1.5ft 12secs Noon 5ft 11secs 6pm 5.5ft 10secs Dont want to be caught outside when the swell jumps 4 feet in the morning. Check it if you dont believe me...thats a garbage forecast - both the unrealistic jump in swell, and 5' @ 11 for sunday.
go to the forecast spot you are interested in, load up the current forecast then look down to just below the wave charts... where it says "want a historic forecast, click here" Click that, then choose the date the forecast you want, and then the number of days...for example Hurricane Earl hit the mid atlantic Sept 3-4 2010, so set the date to Sept 2 and see what they were predicting for the next few days
