If MSW isnt trying to predict actual wave height, then what do they mean by "breaking wave estimate"? They are saying "6 ft. head High" for OCNJ Sunday. It sure sounds like a surf height forecast.
Imo I really dont think this storm is going to affect us all that much, I just hope we get a little something at lease. god knows its been long enough. On the other hand I think the OBX is going to be fireing. Swellinfo's calleding for 3 foot overhead!! Its almost enough to make me take a road trip
based off GFS model, yes, Emily fizzles. Will be switching over to GFDL later today, which doesn't fizzle and is closest to the NHC official forecast track and the ensemble mean of all hurricane models.
Hey swellinfo, Just a thought- I dont know d*ck about forecasting but I math pretty well. Ever consider interpolating between the GFS and GFDL data? That way the forecast will remain more consistent between am and pm updates. Swellinfo's own patented "algorithm".
All i know is it looks like Emily is going to make the cut between Guantanamo and haiti so it won't be weakened by the land mass. OBX Dawn Patrol Sunday!! http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201105.html
Yes, this will certainly help the cause, since it wont have to go over the rough terrain in the Dominican and Haiti.
I never saw the "breaking wave height feature" but it's pretty cool they have it...assuming it works. Just don't rely on their bar graph for that, or you'll be let down. I usually go to the "full Swell Breakdown" which gives you swell information on up to three different swells. I use that and their graphics which I think are pretty nice. Admittedly, I only ever check the "Casino Pier" spot, and I've found that to be accurate. So maybe other spots aren't. No idea what was going on with the Ocean City report yesterday as they dropped it to waist shortly after you pasted, but that is odd. Casino didn't have anything like that. When a hurricane is close, sometimes I'll look at the "New Jersey Hurricane" spot as well. Guesisng it has different algorythms specific to tropical conditions. Seems like everyone has trouble predicting the hurricane swells though. So many variables. I'm probably a minority, but I don't get too amped for hurricane swells. Usually a let down. I just find there's only a handful of spots in NJ that can handle a long period swell, and those end up being a zoo. I have a few unkown spots up my sleeve, but it's tough in the summer with guards and crowds and such. I'll take a mid period noreaster over a hurricane swell. The exception for me is those hurricanes that really hug the coast and bring in mid period swell (10-11 sec) at a hard SSE angle. Those are great, but not so frequent. I'll be happy if we get any clean swell over waist high out of this thing. I'm really itching to get out. I'll take mid period chest high with form over macking head plus closeouts any time....although macking head high with form would be nice too The only good thing about this stretch of no surf is, it's made my wait for a new custom I ordered more bearable.
dear anyone more knowledgeable than I, what are the chances of this thing still moving up the coast and providing some swell? thanks, bags
Even if it doesn't re-intensify, can't we still get swell from a low pressure system moving up the coast?? But the water is very warm so I'm hoping it will reform. Regardless i'm still dawn patrolling OBx sunday morning...I just hope I'm not still drunk...but i probably will be!!!
Thanks for nothing Emily: http://www.swellinfo.com/surfnews/tropical-storm-emily-fizzles.html GFS wins this one as it correctly forecast the storm to die off.
Anyone who seriously predicts what this storm is going to do at this point gets a virus straight to the hard drive.
