the elephant in the room...

Discussion in 'Mid Atlantic' started by njsurfer42, Sep 5, 2011.

  1. Sep 5, 2011 #1
    njsurfer42

    njsurfer42 Well-Known Member

    3,550
    Nov 9, 2009
    ok, i guess i'm gonna be the guy to ask...what's w/ the swell drop-off on friday/saturday? unless i'm reading things completely wrong, there's a category 2 or 3 hurricane forecasted to be off the NJ coast at that point in time; one that's been making it's way up to us steadily over the past week or so. so how is it going to suddenly go flat? am i missing something?
     
    njsurfer42, Sep 5, 2011
    njsurfer42, Sep 5, 2011
  3. Sep 5, 2011 #2
    DaMook

    DaMook Well-Known Member

    868
    Dec 30, 2009
    ya i noticed that but that's the beauty of the computer in that its just a bit off. Everyone stay home.

    A computer program will never predict the conditions perfectly when it has no clue what the sand is doing.

    sounds like a good sig...
     
    DaMook, Sep 5, 2011
    DaMook, Sep 5, 2011

  5. Sep 5, 2011 #3
    thomasgbrock

    thomasgbrock New Member

    1
    Sep 5, 2011
    The forcast for the day after Irene past was supposed to be flat. Put when I paddled out it was chest high and glassy.
    Trust your instincts and watch surfline cams. Today was supposed to be knee high and blown out in VB. When I went out it was chest w/ head high sets with a steady winds out of the SW.
     
    thomasgbrock, Sep 5, 2011
    thomasgbrock, Sep 5, 2011
  6. Sep 5, 2011 #4
    DelP

    DelP Active Member

    33
    Sep 5, 2011
    Yeah...this forecast is definitely suspicious. Irene's winds were blowing 40 mph offshore on Saturday after the storm passed and there were still chest + waves on Sunday morning. I signed up for the amatuer surf contest of the Belmar Pro which is being held this Sat/Sun and was pumped for some swell...now I'm wondering if I should bother if its gonna be knee high. Hopefully Katia will slow down a notch and stick around.
     
    DelP, Sep 5, 2011
    DelP, Sep 5, 2011
  7. Sep 6, 2011 #5
    ND081

    ND081 Well-Known Member

    900
    Aug 7, 2010
    when it comes to hurricanes swellinfo can't be your only resource if you want to score. check the models, keep an eye on the forecast track and just wait for the buoys to light up
     
    ND081, Sep 6, 2011
    ND081, Sep 6, 2011
  8. Sep 6, 2011 #6
    njsurfer42

    njsurfer42 Well-Known Member

    3,550
    Nov 9, 2009
    well aware of that. i just think it's bizarre.
     
    njsurfer42, Sep 6, 2011
    njsurfer42, Sep 6, 2011
  9. Sep 6, 2011 #7
    mOtion732

    mOtion732 Well-Known Member

    1,386
    Sep 18, 2008
    from nws:

    FRI
    N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
    AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT...SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT IN THE
    AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

    FRI NIGHT
    W WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
    SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE
    OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

    SAT
    N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE
    OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY.

    looks like they pretty much agree with swellinfo. however, if that's 2-4ft at 12 seconds, could be pretty good..
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2011
    mOtion732, Sep 6, 2011
    mOtion732, Sep 6, 2011
  10. Sep 7, 2011 #8
    pvjumper05

    pvjumper05 Well-Known Member

    685
    Jun 15, 2008

    yeah this. you need to watch the periods on these swells. anything in the 12 sec range will boost those waves faces up another foot or two
     
    pvjumper05, Sep 7, 2011
    pvjumper05, Sep 7, 2011