With the offshore bouys out of service (44066, 44025, 44065), where is the data for the forecast coming from? Should we still rely on the reports?
Thanks Chris, but unless I read it wrong it appears that buoyweather.com is using NOAA buoys and I thought those are the ones out of service now. Hmmm.
The way i understand surf forecasting, the forecasting sites like Swellinfo, Buoyweather, Surflike, etc. shouldn't really be affected much in the short term by a few buoys that arent reporting. All forecasting websites use meteorological models to predict wind fields, swell generatation, and swell dispersal and finally wave heights at the beach. Dont get me wrong, its nice to see what the buoys are actually reading to verify the forecast, but I dont think it actually affects the forecast accuracy since the forecasts arent based on what the buoys are reading anyway...much like a weather forecast isnt affected by a couple of thermometers breaking. Micah can probably explain it properly.
The near shore buoys are only really used as the report data. The "whats happening at the beach right now" data... The forecasting has to rely on data all the way down as far as off shore in africa. Based on those movements, the forecast models are built.... Think of it like this... The buoy that got taken out, that is a few miles off shore, does not give ANY indications of what it will do 7 days out. or 3 days out... or anything... buoys log data every hour or so, as to what it HAS been doing, not what it will be doing.... So, if Micah uses Buoy readings to adjust his actual "report" info.... of when you click on forecast and it tells you how big it is right NOW, that might be affected, but it looks like his coding uses the projections as a whole, rather than then near shore buoys... I used the near shore buoys to see what the surf is doing right now... the forecasting models are much more complex and require data from extrememly far away sites.... not the ones right by your beach.... The jersey buoys don't start going nuts when there is a hurricane 7 days out... they just act the way they always would... the only swell indications on those are when they start rising and falling as the swells fill in.
They may not mean much for forecasting, but the buoy outage has me really messed up personally in terms of trying to decide whether to go or not. I live 5 miles from the beach - just far enough away that I rely on them A LOT. I usually get up pre-dawn and use the buoy data to determine whether to go or not and where to go based on the swell size, period, tide, etc. I know I'm going to hear from guys who always reply with "you should just go to the beach to check it" but the buoy data is so crazy crucial, useful and convenient. Driving to the beach with no data at 430 in the morning only to find lousy surf can leave me late for work and having left my wife with the brutal task of getting two preschoolers out the door by herself (see the "how do you balance surfing with work/life thread) I hope they fix them soon. It's' weird how much my life come to revolve around some little thing floating out in the ocean telling me what to do.
Ragdolling...you hit it right on the nose, I feel your pain. I live about 10 miles inland and do the same thing. Gotta revert back to when there were no reports available and use your experience, gut instincts and a little bit o luck. NOAA indictaes the bouys will be back online "when they can work it into the maintenance routine" or something to that nature. Being that one of them is at the entrance to NY harbor and the volume of shipping traffic there, one could assume they will try to repair that one asap. I live in hope that they do. FYI - you can check local observations from ships at sea via the NOAA site, which can help. Here is the link for local observations around bouy 44065. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=40.369N&lon1=73.703W&uom=E&dist=250
this is me. 5:30am (no cams, no reports, no friends looking at it) - what's the swell direction doing? buoy height? has the swell faded or is building? basically, is it wroth getting out of bed? **** is unacceptable. what about ppl that use these for work? fishermen, etc? get them fixed!!! edit: their budget was cut 1%. not reason enough to let 4 buoys go out for months at a time.
yeah, the buoys are helpful... but there are numerous sights with real looks at the beach and visual reports... surfline... swellinfo... all of these other sites. thats the only thing i do like about surfline. They have a human look at the beach every morning.... If they arent doing a live report at your beach, just find the nearest ones, look at the swell data they posted and break it down yourself.... same as usuing the buoys......
not quite. i check the buoys before i go to sleep and when i get up at 4am to see what the swell is doing. no light for cams and no human reports yet so the buoy is pretty much it.
Yea i gotta give on to the pain of the people who charter fishing boats and shrimpers etc. not to hate on those who ate 5 min away from the beach that cant read the bouys but i love surfing and i love waking up early to catch an hour or two of surf before work at noon but for me i live 2.5 hours from the beach so once to twice a week ill get up at 330 and be at the beach by 6, stay till 9 then head back to work so maybe 5 miles will make you feel a lil better : D
Good point. I really only monitor the buoys like over night that if i'm traveling or chasing a big swell. There are hundreds of buoys up and down the coast, you will just need to find some buoys closer to you, or down the coast on a similar beach angle etc... I guess just hope they get back up soon.
