Once again teased by a forecast

Discussion in 'Mid Atlantic' started by bushwood, Nov 21, 2011.

  1. bushwood

    bushwood Well-Known Member

    430
    Jun 4, 2010
    So yesterday morning I did my normal routine "surf forecast and cam check" and low and behold there was a forecast for VB of stomach to chest high ocasional shoulder high sets with winds switiching in the afternoon on Friday out of the west less than 5 mph. So I was pumped, a Thanksgiving weekend swell tempartuers in VB forecasted in the low 60s. I was so pumped a weekday swell that I was already off for, but of course I pulled up the ol' Swell Info app on my iPhone last ngiht, and what did I see a new forecast of 0-1 foot on friday and nothing over knee high that seemed half rideable all weekend.
    Those teaser forecast are so disappointing once they change in less than 12 hours especially when it goes from Chest high to Flat.

    Oh well guess I can play golf.
     
  2. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    thats what we get on the east coast, where systems move west to east, and any tweaks in the modeled system track significantly throw off the near shore wind swell events.

    Looking at the wave maps will give you a bigger picture idea of what and where the systems are, and then you can understand why tweaks in the updates change the forecast scenario.
     

  3. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

    985
    Jun 27, 2010
    I thought the forecast downgraded because I decided to stay in town for Thanksgiving. Had I gone out of town to see relatives, it would've been pumping here.

    That's my own historical data ;)
     
  4. bushwood

    bushwood Well-Known Member

    430
    Jun 4, 2010
    Oh I totally get the changes to the forecast, I understand completely. I am not knocking the info provided here at all, i just know I get all amped on waves and being that 10 days or so ago we had fun swell and I am frothing to get more waves. I just htought we may get some Thanksgiving swell, we still might that forecast can change to the good again, i have hope!
     
  5. bushwood

    bushwood Well-Known Member

    430
    Jun 4, 2010
    Dude if you would just carry your @$$! Lol, I did it during Hurricane season for the rest of you VB guys, I went to Seattle for two weeks in late August for work. I mised two days of fun surf before Irene came thru, I had my sacrifice for 2011, its your turn McLovin
     
  6. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    Ya, I here ya... I think I've grown immuned to getting my hopes up for the long range prospects, especially with the type of systems that look so iffy... It could certainly still change for the better.
     
  7. havanasand

    havanasand Well-Known Member

    231
    Aug 9, 2011
    It's dissapointing to see green filling in the chart and the next day it looks flat. swellinfo is free so I'm not going to call anyone out on their forecasting tools (which seem to be fairly accurate most of the time. However, I would'nt plan a surf trip around one > 3-4 days out.) I factor in 2 other sites when I'm really trying to nail down if it's going to be good. Don't forget NWS forecasts which should be a staple in any surfer's forecasting toolbox. We live on the most fickle coast for surf forecasting. Not like California, HA, or Puerto Rico where you can call a great day a week in advance. Going home for Christmas. So we should get a great swell about the time I'm pulling out of the driveway. Never fails.
     
  8. mandrake

    mandrake Member

    10
    Nov 5, 2011
  9. Lumpy

    Lumpy Well-Known Member

    267
    Aug 28, 2006
    That's funny...it was supposed to be flat today and there are waves..so get out there and surf!!! Or bodyboard!!

    PS- It has nothing to do with whether its a pay site or its free...I has to do with the unpredictable track of East Coast storm events. Most of these sites use at least some of the same forecast models...if anything, there is a 6 or 12 hour difference in the forecasting updates...and at 144 or 180 hours out, I assume that there is something better to do then to dwell on the accuracy 7 days out.:p Now if the storm was tropical in nature and is coming from an easterly direction, then that's a whole different animal..;)
     
  10. Sniffer

    Sniffer Well-Known Member

    Sep 20, 2010
    what happened to driving your bum to the beach and checking the surf? If you rely on the internet for surf, you will surf less!!! Ya bum!
     
  11. havanasand

    havanasand Well-Known Member

    231
    Aug 9, 2011
    What he said...
     
  12. kielsun

    kielsun Well-Known Member

    173
    Oct 2, 2011
    Unfortunately for some of us, we don't really have that option. :( :( :(
     
  13. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

    985
    Jun 27, 2010
    Ugh, wind switched on me this afternoon, right when I got to the beach I saw everyone heading back to their cars. Anyways, Friday looks promising now
     
  14. idsmashh

    idsmashh Well-Known Member

    404
    Aug 2, 2010
    yea. i hear ya there. I'm in the same boat
     
  15. njsurfer42

    njsurfer42 Well-Known Member

    Nov 9, 2009
    wind came up HARD late this afternoon/early evening! prior to about 4:30/5:00, it was super fun! i had one of my best sessions in a while today!
    i think friday morning will be fun...might be some loggable waves left over.
     
  16. idsmashh

    idsmashh Well-Known Member

    404
    Aug 2, 2010
    me too dude. Where did you go? Seaside Heights? I got there around 12 cause I heard morning was supposed to be blown out, and right when i got there everyone was packin up. Total BS! Worst part is I checked the forecast 10 minutes ago and acording to this forecast the wind switch was at exactly 12PM....... Its like the waves knew I was coming :(
     
  17. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    perfect winds today for the Delmarva....

    am sw winds were offshore in Delaware fun chest high
    pm nw winds were offshore in OC, MD more fun shouder high
     
  18. windswellsucks

    windswellsucks Well-Known Member

    520
    Oct 20, 2007
    look at tues to eff with your brain!
     
  19. CBLACK

    CBLACK Well-Known Member

    86
    Sep 24, 2010
    Wait a minute.....