Calling all Swellmasters; Guru's; Non-Guru's; Anyone!

Ya I would love to know why these forecast are so unpredictable it seems like they are always down graded. I know we are dealing with the weather and the ocean, but I've never known a surf forecast to constantly have so many unpredictable changes. Iam thankfull for this site as well but it is tough especially when the rest of the world is getting great surf. I've only lived on the pacific and now I'm stuck here and can't get a grasp on this atlantic thing.

 

My Prediction is that 98% of the replies will be about how you're a d.bag for questioning the inexplicable changes after calling for a big swell. Lol.
I'd actually like to know what's up with that too.
Also several times swell info has the day all red but the conditions actually turn out to be fair or better.

 

The answer to your question is that Atlantic swell is predominately short period, generated by passing storms. In contrast, swell on the Pacific is predominately medium-long period generated by storms that are far off the coast. Because of these facts it is easier to predict swell on the Pacific coast than the Atlantic coast. On the Pacific coast the swell can be anticipated days or sometimes weeks in advance, whereas on the Atlantic coast we are lucky to be able to anticipate swell more than 3 days in advance, unless it's a hurricane (read: medium-to-long period) swell. Hopefully that helps you get a grasp on this Atlantic thing

 

Oh just blame it on the jet stream.

 

Ya I guess thats why ur periods rarely get over 8sec. I know man I'm just starved out need to go home for a second and get some leg pump at hazards.

 

A mfizt73 try and use weather.com if you don't already it will break down the wind hourly, 36 hours in advance.

 

Changes in forecast storm path greatly influence the nearshore wind swell generated along East Coast. The question has been asked a hundred times... We are reliant on weather models, which can greatly fluctuate in the long range. As mentioned, this is different along the west coast, where the swell can travel many days before approaching the coast, so 3-7 day forecasts are much more reliable as they are less dependent on long range weather forecasts.

 

darealm hit it spot on...


anything over 48 hours is generally just grab-bag area; its predictions. however, during that time, a storm can dissipate, strengthen, turn, rotate, etc. which will inevitably change the forecast.

once you go past the 48 hours or so, you need to realize that what you see, will probably not happen as shown, ESPECIALLY if it is created by a storm front/system that is right off the coast (short periods). unlike hurricanes which tend to be predictable with some paths, and strengths (see: predictions), fronts and offshore storm systems are flaky and cannot be easily predicted.

basically, this is the reason we as a community hate "hype threads." hyping up swells is stupid because you will be disappointed more often than not

so in short, if the swell appears to be a day or two away, then it is more likely to remain similar to that. anything outside of that time-window, literally ignore it (or if you are like me and some others, go to weather.com or noaa.com and check out the system that will be producing it and follow it). that way you dont have to be disappointed when the system fails or moves too far north. this last paragraph does not apply to hurricane long-period swells where a few days out may hold true

 

Get in the habit of looking at the wave maps, and when the new updates come in you can see how the small changes in the weather patterns influence the nearshore wind swell. For example, on Friday, there is a strong storm system moving off the coast, but if you look at the wave maps, you will that the latest updates shows mostly SW swell that turns W very quickly blowing out everything quickly. Staying on the updates, and looking closely wave maps will help you understand why the forecasts change with the foretasted weather tracks.

 

generally, shore winds differ from regional winds. all the red/green guys say are how the conditions at a general spot will be due to wind conditions. however, if your spot is shield from winds (jetty, turn in shore direction, etc.) it might not affect you. another thing is that due to the difference in the speed at which water and sand heat, the mornings and dusks will tend to have weaker winds compared to a bit after and before, respectively.

dont always count on the forecasts as solid facts. instead, use them as tools to help your judgments. a great way to help yourself is to keep a journal of surf days:
swell direction
swell height
swell period
location
wind speed
wind direction
tide

once a dozen or two days are notched in, you can look at swellinfo's forecast and browse your journal to see how the conditions will appear at your spot, within those conditions posted

 

Also, onshore at 6mph and onshore at 7mph is the difference between blue and red. Don't look at the color coding as gospel. I think I'd rather surf 7mph and onshore (red) than 35mph and offshore (green). Swell size and period plays a role there too as I'm not good enough to surf barrels like we had with Irene.

 

put it this way:

SW wind = weak swell
SE wind = good swell

 

Yeah let me accentuate what Motion732 dude had to say. Here's a cursory lesson in mid-Atlantic swell prediction. Grab on to something cause this is deep. Watch for storms tracking from the west to the east.....keep your eye on the region from the Gulf to Hatteras, also. When a storm tracks across the country or forms down in that Gulf-to- Hatteras area and it approaches our area the winds will turn on-shore or some side shore variety. N,NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE, S and every south facing beach's favorite the SW(cause they pick up SW's mo better). When these winds blow over 10 mph for a period of times waves will break at your favorite shred spot. The harder the wind blows and the longer it blows the bigger your shred spot will be.

You have to watch the Atlantic for those elusive ground swells.

If you do keep journals and think that, "Oh these conditions are just like that storm back in the day, it's gonna be just like that." Be prepared for disappointment. It's never the same.

 

Bottom line...I think that is why it feel so good to score a great day on the East Coast. We have to wait longer, work harder and surf a lot more average days than our friends on the West Coast. But, when we score a great day...it makes it all worth it.

 

I have to disagree with most people on here. Altough predicting actual wave heights 3 days in advance is a gamble at best you can absolutely predict the trend in weather thus predict swells not swell heights. Im sorry Swellinfo but you guys have dropped the ball many times on swell predictions. I have to say you guys have been grossly off the past few swells. Dukestorm on the other hand could predict the trends and specific swells weeks in advance. Yes...we do understand the path of the storm effects wave size but you could give a general size due to storm strenght. I.E how far it drops in pressure. Also, people have to understand this is a La Nina winter in which we will not be getting strong storms that follow a good track. (hum.....interesting that Sean Collins predicted this trend BACK IN NOVEMBER). Needless to say, swellinfo needs to change their models they base their predictions off of. AND to all the ppl who say pay this is a free site. I disagree, the amount of advertising space is WHY its free to the user. Lets not be mistaken, money is being made by this site. In other words, if you have a way to predict more acurately, PM me and we can create a new FREE site and put this one out of business.

 

Y'all should just watch for approaching storms(East Coast Surfers). Most of our swell activity comes from local weather systems. Sooooo, when these systems approach our area you'll know that most likely there will be waves. Quit trying to document and predict every specific about each approaching swell. Just know there will be waves and keep some of the surprise and mystery of the ocean alive for when you walk over the dunes.

Trying to form an idea in your head of what this particular swell will do, to this spot, at that tide just drives you crazy. Planning surfs a week in advance just plain sucks. I mean it's so mechanical here. Low pressure moves in.....winds switch onshore......surf builds....system heads off the coast.......winds turn offshore.........swell drops.......Yeah there are some variables but that is basically surfing on the east coast. And yes, occasionally waves come from out of the blue or from other sources. It's mother nature y'all, you aren't supposed to be able to predict it's every move.

Trying to guestimate the details of every swell is counter productive. And even if you can predict, that, ok next Thurday is going to be four foot, it doesn't mean it will be a GOOD four foot. It could be a week BS four foot that doesn't light up your favorite jetty, and that will make you cry. Hannah Montana wouldn't try and be so calculated. She would just watch The Weather Channel, check in with SwellInfo and hit it when the winds go offshore. She doesn't surf slop, and doesn't get anal retentive about surf predictions.

 

Nature man, its nature man (say this while using a stereotypical surfer voice).