lets hope that low tracks a little more north than they are forecasting http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200894_model.html
last satellite capture capture showing some organization - I think we will see tropical storm cristobal before the end of the day. Satellite Loop
Even though it's over warm water it's got a lot of dry air over land, some modest shear, and will remain somewhat close to land. With that they're not expecting much at this time. No models take it above 50mph. With the present thinking on track land effects are to be SC, NC, SE Mass (sunday-monday), Nova Scotia.
I agree NO CAT-5, a cat-2 or 3 would be really bad up this far north, a cat-5 would be catastrophic. we'd probibly have a couple new inlets to surf though
Just not going to be an impressive storm and likely won't stir up the surf enough other than to make it a little like a kid sloshing around in a bathtub type environment. This storm is small and ragged and even though it may now reach 60mph that won't be wrapped all the way around it will likely only be in a small portion of the strongest band of rain on the SE side. In the majorty of the storm you'll find winds less than 30. Tropical systems don't have to have the maximum wind speed all the way around it - just has to be in a tiny area of the storm. If they find persistent 50mph winds in a small area but only 20mph elsewhere - they will still list it as a 50mph storm - that's why they say MAXIMUM sustatined winds. They do this because - if you happen to have that area go over your house - you need to be advised what to expect - even though 90% of those affected will never see it. In other words no real good wind fetch to work with here for those of us from MD to CT I wouldn't expect much and the forecasts reflect that.
it looks like delmarva and nj will see some short period stuff from cristobal monday and tuesday, but its not going to be very big. were talking 3ft stuff. but hey, its july, enjoy it! #'s will change a bit for the evening update.
