blown forecast

Discussion in 'Northeast' started by shark-hunter, Jul 26, 2012.

  1. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    I'm smelling a skunk tommorow for Rhode Island. No way waist to chest. WAAAY too much west in this swell. It's WSW(252 degrees) 6.2 feet at 7 seconds and it's flat currently at 7:00pm on many south and east facing breaks.

    :(
     
  2. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    How are you going to call a blown forecast, before it even arrives...

    For Rhode Island, you will see there are 2 different beach facing directions.
    S facing beaches is the default:
    http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/newport-rhode-island.html
    For E facing beaches:
    http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/newport-rhode-island-e.html

    You will see Swellinfo is showing only minor swell getting into the east facers.

    There will definitely be surf at the south exposures... Just a matter of finding that compromise between clean surf and more size The primary swell direction will be coming from the SSW.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012

  3. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    The swell has arrived. According to your forecast it should be nearly chest high. It's over 6 feet right now on the buoy. I was staring at s south facing break in western RHode Island at 7:00pm and it was flat. And by flat I mean FLAT. A 252 degree swell doesn't get into the majority of south facing breaks. Rhody doesn't handle west swells well. SW absolutely, but not a due west swell or wsw(degree of direction and size/period dependant). If you head west over rhode island, you run into land or long island sound, not ocean. Therefore not much fetch. lol

    Not a knock on your site. All the forecasts sites are calling for the swell, but I've seen this scenario before when it's got too much west in it. I HOPE I'm wrong. If the primary direction switches to ssw or even sw we are in business.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  4. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    The majority of the swell will fill in overnight as the southerly fetch from the Mid Atlantic reaches your area.
    The beginning short period wind swells can float on by easily, but the long period fetch usually doesn't get blown out as easily by the westerly current.

    The tucked away areas, like Naragansett wont see much with these swells, while the more exposed spots to the east should. Give it a check in the morning.
     
  5. Sloop John B.

    Sloop John B. Well-Known Member

    92
    Jun 28, 2011
    If you know better than the forecasting sites what will be happening at your break, then that's great for you right? You know what the swell will be while everyone else follows the sites. So if it's good you'll be the one out while others are in and if it's bad you won't waste the gas while others are messing around chasing random swells.

    So what exactly are you complaining about if you think you know what the swell will be anyway?
     
  6. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    That makes sense. Thanks.
     
  7. shark-hunter

    shark-hunter Well-Known Member

    Apr 29, 2012
    All the excitement all week long just to see a damn w in front of the sw on the buoy. Let down! Hopefully it's just that westerly current and it will in tommorw :)
     
  8. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    where do you surf in RI?
     
  9. krl0919

    krl0919 Well-Known Member

    302
    May 3, 2011
    we started getting swell today in NJ when it was forcasted to be pretty much nothing. im nervous about tomorrow.
     
  10. surftb15

    surftb15 Well-Known Member

    236
    Feb 25, 2012
    Swell in Montauk this afternoon. Got a few good ones in. Tomorrow is going to be a washing machine though. Saturday should clean up.
     
  11. pvjumper05

    pvjumper05 Well-Known Member

    685
    Jun 15, 2008
    dude, Micah, way to be off on the forecast for august 17th. i can already tell its wrong









    :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
     
  12. Zman9398

    Zman9398 Well-Known Member

    341
    May 16, 2012
    Hopely it is not going to be as bad as yesterday but their calling for 6 ft at 7 seconds in wildwood. Now the question is it going to be glassy and amazing ( haha b.s.) or crappy dumping slop ( now thats more understandable)
     
  13. austinj215

    austinj215 Well-Known Member

    133
    Sep 10, 2009
    I really wish that you hadn't been right...
     
  14. surfingwasteland

    surfingwasteland Well-Known Member

    337
    Jul 24, 2011
    My god, why you gotta make rhody look bad. Not only are you whining before the swell even fills is, you clearly have no idea what tides are. Rhode Island spots, from what I have found, are super detrimental with the tides. One spot will be flat while one just down the street is chest high, keep your eye on it and start driving, and check different tides.

    Even better idea, dont look at the forecast, just go check it yourself.
     
  15. surfingwasteland

    surfingwasteland Well-Known Member

    337
    Jul 24, 2011
    oh and I checked matunuck at about 12pm yesterday when the wind was picking up, easily thigh to waist high with the tide filling in. Green Hill was flat and thats about 3 miles down the road.
     
  16. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    Ya, the south exposures like Matanuck are going to pick these swells up much more then the tucked away areas in Naragansett and such. Its a little tricky to have one forecast region for the diverse geography in RI, but the 2 different forecasts for East and South facing beaches are hopefully helpful.
     
  17. mp1

    mp1 Member

    10
    Feb 2, 2010
    hate to chime in, but... knee high. the swell direction is straight south. watched those waves head straight north. Fifty people in the water this am tho tearing up some knee high junk. maybe they still think this is a chest high wave. ha.
     
  18. ihatelongboarders

    ihatelongboarders Well-Known Member

    Dec 13, 2007
    flat flat flat flat. at least i got up early to start my day!
     
  19. mOtion732

    mOtion732 Well-Known Member

    Sep 18, 2008
    swell direction is SW. the little short period swell that there is is moving AWAY from east facing beaches. i've learned my lesson about these swells - do not get remotely excited for them. unless you're somewhere south facing, you're going to get skunked.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2012