I decided to make this it's own thread. Right now Leslie looks to stall from Wednesday at 2am until Friday at 2pm (thats as far as forecast goes) right UNDER and BEFORE Bermuda. So this swell has to go until at least Saturday right? If this actually happens with the stall, and it moves up the coast slower, wouldn't it be better on Friday and Saturday than Wednesday and Thursday? Also, I checked multiple sites regarding the wind being NNW on Wednesday, but the majority that update every hour have it going on-shore on Wednesday into Thursday night and not switching to NNW/NW until Friday. Is there a chance that all of this is going to be pushed back into the weekend? And by "this" i mean clean big waves with nice conditions. Here's one site that I've found trustworthy (and yes it takes into account the Hurricane as you can tell by the wave height being 6-8 ft): http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/cape_may_harbor#
Yeah, lots going on here. Remnants of Isaac will be interacting with a frontal boundary over eastern CONUS, then there's an approaching tropical near Bermuda. The GFS will bounce around until we get to within 72 hours of the "event". Until it locks in the interaction between Isaac remnants as it turns extratropical and the front, we can only guess. There are a tremendous amount of dynamics in play here that will impact steering currents downsream, and that includes the steering mechanism for Leslie. The most important thing to track with the GFS this far out is the model's trend. It's definitely trending slower regarding Leslie's forecasted track.
The only thing I'm watching currently is wind direction and what day will be the peak. It's a given we're going to be getting waves, just when is the correct question here. Currently, I think Friday is going to be the day. I think the wind is going to be more depended on the remains of Isaac coming through PA and NJ and after it passes over, the wind will shift accordingly. This Isaac front will also keep Leslie off the coast but the other system you can see with satellite is keeping it from moving in general. I think Wednesday and Thursday will in fact be getting what this forecast is saying, but the conditions will be far worse than what it currently is.
More and more sites are agreeing with the wind change. MSW is saying Its going to be getting even BIGGER on Saturday/Sunday, Surfline's 14 day forecast says the swell will continue until Monday. I guess friday still is the day.
The 12z run of the GFS just came out and continues with the idea that Leslie stalls for a few days near Bermuda. When Leslie starts moving again, it's progged to move slowly toward the east coast before recurving. The key will be if/where the east coast cold front stalls or hangs up, and its directional orientation when it does (east-west, noth-south, etc.) Again, the specifics and timing will probably change 50 times between now and end of next week, but the trend here is very promising. We should see multiple days of big swells.
I'm just hoping there's some left over for Saturday and Sunday as those are the only days I can get down :/
