Underforecasted this morning; Great swell!

Yeah Topsail was def not fun as hell this morn. I did not get any good chest to head high waves, no clean slashable faces or fun little barrels. Listen to Erock and stay away from NC like the plague!

 

It was horrible everywhere today, especially this evening, just flat out horrible I tell ya

 

yo bro Ryan- you always get the sweet pics!!! But you are right, it looks flat to me, i wouldn't paddle out... Yesterday was ng- i couldn't even get rides all the way to the beach!

 

Fun all day yesterday...these are from the morning.

 

I love October
Crowds are gone and barrels to catch
Please send more swell soon​

 

forecast said 3-5'. Local Buoys were 3' at 12 seconds. Spot on.
3 feet overhead? Maybe if your Mason Ho.

 

Reporting from Brevard county, was solid head high barreling beach break with larger sets up until noon, then the tide dropped and still was good, semi textured but more inconsistent. Great day! Drove from the Gulf solo and scored!

 

I was at 5 different spots yesterday in Monmouth county. There were def a couple sets in the2 ft overhead range but mostly head high. It was definetly larger in southern mo. Co compared to spots further north. The spots that were real good had a ridiculous crowd on it. I've was seriously shocked at a southern mo. Co spot that's usually smaller than everywhere else was bigger than everywhere else. still don't understand how 3.3 at 10 sec with a sse angle can translate to overhead close out for lots of mo. Co spots, just when we think you have it dialed you get under gunned.

 

Don't just look at buoy 44065, but look at both 44065 and 44025. 44065 is in that Hudson Canyon refraction territory. When you compare the two buoys you will get an idea of how much refraction is taking place, which may indicate differences between Northern and Southern territories.

Offshore buoys were running around 4.3 ft @ 14 seconds yesterday.
Swellinfo model was hitting this pretty much right on target when we look at model output at the buoy locations. We take into account swell data that is closer to the coast then most of these buoys which are 20+ miles offshore. This difference between offshore and nearshore swells can be a tricky calculation with longer period swells on the shallow continental shelf.
Having said all that Swellinfo is definitely on the conservative side for long period swells - at least right now.

 

much rather be pleasantly surprised having it bigger than forecasted vs. expecting OH surf and showing up at the beach and having it be waist high

 

crowds certainly not gone anywhere...

 

wave height forecasting

I'm not sure what this website's model is preceisely trying to forecast, but a lot of the swell models predict "significant wave height" which is defined as:

"In physical oceanography, the significant wave height (SWH or Hs) is defined traditionally as the mean wave height (trough to crest) of the average of the highest third of the waves (H1/3)"

If you think about it, if a set of overhead waves comes through every few minutes, think about the vast number of waist high, chest high, and other waves coming in. If significant wave height is what's being forecast, then a forecast of shoulder high is completely consistent with overhead sets, if there are also a lot of chest high and smaller waves mixed in.

 

All swells are reported in significant wave height for each individual swell. Significant wave height is calculated as 4*sqrt(E), where E is the sum total of wave energy. For surf forecasting, you wouldnt want to take the significant wave height of the entire wave spectrum, because you may have multiple concurrent swells of different directions and frequencies (periods). This is why the significant buoy readings can be misleading when there are multiple swells in the water. So, it is important to sort out the individual swells through statistical methods.

PS. If you look at the new Swell Timeline (click on the "Swell button"), we now show the Overall significant wave height in the gray line.

 

You're right I only looked at the one buoy,I usually look at both and compare.thanks

 

Well I got skunked!!!! Sat at work, seeing super fun Chest to Shoulder high clean swell coing in all morning in VB. I got off work a little later than I wanted to and got to the beach at 5. Tide dead low, SE winds all over it, dumpy stomach high closeouts on the sand bar. Absolutely crap. I surfed from 5 til 630 trying to scratch out a decent wave, found nothing compared to what was going on all day while i was at work, skunked!

 

Does this mean that 44025 is showing the amount of long period swell that will be hitting areas that recieveing increased swell because of the hudson valley refraction, where as 44065 reflects the loss in swell energy from the continetal shelf?

 

Second that...

 

Got on it early at Pendleton. Then the MP's ran us off, parking lot closed all week, it was dumpier more north of the fence. They picked a hell of a week to lock the lot, first time I've seen it closed this long. At least I got a couple....

 

Yes, its a good indication on the easterly swells. You have to remember, that buoys represent the swell at their respective location, so all beaches will be influenced differently by the variance in bathymetry.