Just wanted to mention that several tropical models are pointing towards a Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane making landfall in NYC, Jersey or New England this weekend. Not sure if anyone is following this or not, but thought I'd throw it out there on the table. Could spoil a potentially epic weekend of surf for Long Island. Time will tell...
I think it's actually the season's first Nor'easter like storm, hence the huge swell heights, and NE-Easterly flow. It's been brewing for awhile off the Carolinas, I think the system stretches as far as Florida. Micah will have to correct us on this.
I think I just went myself a little. It wouldn't be the first time, but this time was especially nice. - Vic
I was actually referring to the low that's over Hispaniola right now. (#93L, soon to be Tropical Storm Kyle by Wednesday I would assume). As it breaks away from the islands and westerly sheer relaxes, it has the potential to quickly become a hurricane, possibly as strong as a 2 or 3, before it comes barreling up the East coast into New England. As for the other system off the Carolina coast, that could also take on some tropical characteristics, if not a hybrid type system, and back West into the Carolinas late in the week. Lots to watch and a potentially dangerous situation for the NE with the hurricane. Tons of swell, not so sure about those winds though...
I see the GFDL has gone much further east along the lines of the GFS, which is surprising due to the fact that of any of the models, the GFS always seem to be the most out of touch with tropical systems since it doesn't play into all the warm water and heat energy stored up. Guess we'll see with future runs and how this other low developing off the SE coast shapes up, as well as the stregnth and position of the high. I just don't buy into that atlantic escape route.
the most wee wood c outta it iz just more cont. easterly swell and ne windz...the chancez uv a hurricane running us over up here, at hurricane strength, iz just very rare...it's 99% likely uv being just x-tra tropical @ that point.
I'm sorry, I didn't know you were talking about 93L. There is talk of it being hurled towards the EC, but I have a gut feeling that's it's going to be an extratropical system, which is fine, those bring sizable waves as well, we just have to keep an eye on the winds. Considering the shape of many NY sandbars at this point, what are we closing out at these days? Head high? ; ) Oh, okay. 6 feet.
that's funny u bring up the sandbar state spongah...i remember when this place usta fire @ multiple spots, very reliable...it seemz everywhere'z shutdown now...there'z only a handful uv breaks left on the island, and they're mostly pointbreaks out east and long beach...longbeach alwayz seemz 2 be rideable and can handle anysize swell, and it's usually never really that huge, even when it's overhead...it's one uv the only dpendable areas on the island with an east swell and ne windz...
wow, i c whatcha tawkn' about spackledust...i wuz more concerned with the immediate future, but that disturbance IS indeed 4casted to move up towardz us, which shood provide surf for quite sum time. besidez the swell we have this whole week from the low...
Don't be so quick to write off the chance of it maintaining hurricane strength. While it is uncommon, a tropical system in it's position this time of year can come up the coast at tremendous speeds. Look at the 1938 hurricane that slammed Long Island as a cat 3. It was moving well over 50mph north so its time spent over cooler waters was not long enough for it to weaken. Anything is possible, and if the system does manage to rapidly intensify and come racing up the coast, someone from New Jersey up to New England could be having a really bad weekend. Keep an eye on it. And oh yeah, how about the storm thats about to slam the carolinas with 60mph winds and torrential rain thursday. Tropical storm anyone?
93L hasn't really been doing what it's been supposed to be doing, it's not very organized, and the wind shear is higher than was forecasted. Then again, Fay didn't follow the rules, either, who knows at this point? Kman - 20 years ago - yes, I am really that old - there were so many places on Long Island - well known and not so well known - that really lit up on various types of swell. Now everything is so eroded or just destroyed from the ACOE's "efforts" at beach rehab. Long Beach is a very consistent break, but does close out around 2' OH, then again, it depends on what jetty you're at. They all have their own characteristics. East of LB used to be the shiznit back in the day, breaking way higher than LB and just sick. It's still a good break and I love it, just different. Sad. Don't even get me started on Rockaway or Central. ; )
Latest runs showing a general consensus on a New England hit. All the runs that went east have trended west again. 93L is a bit ragged right now but what can you expect out of a storm thats been holding ground for so many days now. Tomorrow it should pull north just as has been forecast and escape some of that sheer. My thinking is we'll definitely be looking at a depression tomorrow, maybe even a tropical storm by night or early Thursday.
straight from jeff masters himself... The track forecast The models are now in fairly good agreement that a strong coastal storm--which could be extratropical or subtropical--will develop off the coast of North Carolina tonight. This storm will affect coastal North Carolina like a weak tropical storm would, with sustained winds of 40 mph, tide levels up to six feet above normal, and 2-3 inches of rain. As 93L is drawn northwards, the two storms will interact, and 93L will get flung northwards towards New England or the Maritime Provinces of Canada. The U.S. East Coast can expect considerable rain for the four day period beginning on Wednesday (Figure 1), but I am expecting that most of this will be due to the coastal low drawing in large amounts of tropical moisture as it tracks north-northeast up the coast. I currently give 93L a 30% chance of hitting the U.S., 60% chance of hitting Canada, and 10% chance of recurving out to sea. There is a high amount of uncertainty with this forecast. The intensity forecast Wind shear remains near 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 5-15 knots for the remainder of the week. The GFDL and HWRF models are less aggressive than previous runs in intensifying 93L, and I doubt the storm would hit New England or Canada as anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm. There is a large amount of dry air to the northwest of 93L it will have to contend with, and a good potential it may encounter some high wind shear.
lookin' like 93L and low off north carolina will interact, producing sum seeriuz power! 48hr radiofax:
