Why is there always an overhead swell predicted on last day of forecast on SI? After 2 days, it turns to chest high, in 3 to a waist high or flat. Today's forecast was well overhead when first on the charts, and now there is another? I think its just a ploy to get us coming back time and time again to look.
Its not hard to figure out...look to the top and right part of your screen. Were in the money, were in the money.
We aren't that clever... Based off of the weather models and there are certain biases in the model. People seem to only remember the times when it over-predicts in the long range, where as the opposite occurs as well, and sometimes its pretty darn consistent the entire 7 days.
What happens is........ If there is a situation 7 days out where Mr. Swellinfo Guy is unsure of the call, him and the staff go to their back-up plan........ Mr. Swellinfo Guy's dog. Being a good dog, the dog is usually a little overly-optimistic. Hence, the reports tend to be on the bigger side when dealing with the long-term. Dogs can smell cancer so with some training and guidance they'll be predicting waves soon enough. Oh what, now you're going to hate on the dog?
it's just about keeping a good balance of opposites. Surfline is run by (much more accurate) pessimist cats.
I always look at the weather and I can usually tell why it might be overforcasted. If the weather forcast changes during the week then swell usually follows. Although I have to say, they are pretty accurate down here.
follow the locals... anything two + days out is going to change since it's predicted, paddled out on "red days" still had fun as long as the winds cooperated, best bet is always personally check your spots. One thing I've learned from surfing (and still do) is oceanography / meteorology part time
Just my opinion, but iam surprised how accurate it can be you gotta keep in mind it's just a guide. No way an exact science, especially that far in advance. They often aren't predicting any kind of swell while the European model shows a storm possibly brewing 5-7 days in advance while the gfs shows nothing...Iam assuming swell info mainly uses the gfs.
Great, KB, great. Coupla very good days (nothing epic but just good long lefts & rights in tropical waters), coupla average days & one blown out, washing machine day. Lotta fun in the water, good healthy food & overall always worth making the trek.
good to hear...glad you enjoyed it. To the OP, look at the forecast this week...I'm seeing flatlines 7 days out.
Ahhh but Surfers Suuuuplies is all gung ho for next week............ Ahh man, I love the sound of that guy's voice. I call that number 4 times a week.........ever since 1987......Sometimes I disrobe before hand....... I wonder what Mr. Swellinfo Guy's voice is like............He should do a recorded Delaware surf report.....I'd call every night. No, really, I would. Phone recorded surf reports are a part of east coast nostalgia that should never die. Most of the young kids on here don't even know........They don't even know......they use the computer exclusively........THAT IS WRONG !!!! CALL THE RECORED SURF REPORT......IT'S SO SEXY !!!!! TAKE YOUR PANTS OFF !!!!
mannn, i remember calling the corolla surfshop report on trips down south. My dad told me about the surfer supply ones from back in his day and encouraged me to check our "vacation" spots while we were there.
