My guess is the forecast for will decrease for most areas by a foot or two on Saturday. Already shot down a foot..For this area, my guess is it will go from head clean to waist to stomach, occ, chest and sideshore/ semi chop conditions. Never fails..
lol, my brother and I talk about that all the time. The way it looks great, and then 2 days out the winds turn straight east and mess everything up.
sounds about right... i think it was monday.. me and my friend went out at like 7 when it was suppose to be chest and glassy, and it was sideshore and doubling up everywhere
I told my buddy same thing!-Its always overhead prediction 4-5 days out. Im going to keep original weekend plans and if the surf cooperates then ill surf, if not, i will be in a tree stand every afternoon this weekend.
I'm with you guys. I'll probably go Friday and Sunday regardless. It'd just be nice to have the wind cooperate. Pfox, what are you shooting?
I guess the moderator is tired of explaining the data. But, here is the dumb-downed version. The onshore prediction is based on off-shore data. The shoals on the East Coast (South of NJ) eat in to that energy. So, when you look at predictions for 4 and 5 days out, the data is accurate. But, as the swell approaches there are several factors that cause the predictions to drop in size. Therefore, instead of complaining about how Swell Info is wrong, just enjoy the fact that you can check the surf without actually going to the beach...like we had to back in the day when the line-up was a lot less crowded. Keep up the good work Swell Info.
its all dependent upon the atmospheric model data... In some cases, the GFS model develops coastal lows too strongly 3-5 days out. In other cases it underestimates coastal low pressure development 3-5 days out. The Swellinfo forecast is based off the GFS wind data. There are certainly biases in the models, but we are using the best data available.
Calm down scooter. I wasn't impying that Swellinfo was wrong, I was implying that the conditions were changing. It is possible for the conditions to look favorable, and then change, changing the forecast.
All this is true and I think everyone is very appreciative of all surf forecasting, maybe except magic seaweed which is constantlyway off on some areas northern south carolina and southern north carolina . Swell info is usually on, it is a difficult thing, you are providing a great service, but criticism will come with any forecasting, not just weather, ocean, or atmospheric conditions. Reason being is you can see patterns develop for some breaks off certain conditions and either leaves you with a bad taste in your mouth or stoked out the yin yang. Being that the east coast is very fickly, playing it down is a must in order to be rewarded.. Another point is traveling to breaks, sacraficing work time, spending gas money, etc. all to pull up to some weak surf that is blown out, which contradicts the forecast.. This is where it becomes knowlegde of the area and certainly studying the models to what you think is best for the given break. So, playing it down is actually very realistic and rewarding along this coast.
All I know is if I have to continue looking at the photos from up north with their AMAZING surf I think I'll just stick my head in the microwave. Damn those guys get serious waves ....for any coast! Please..please..please let us have an ankle high day with wind only 100 mph out of the east...I would be so greatful. Okay, yes I'm a little bitter and need some surf...soon! too much work
home break was super fun all day sat. from sunup to sundown there was consistent, clean, chest to occ. head medium period waves rolling through with peaks up and down the beach. i couldn't believe how long it held up! a coupla guys were consistently getting barrells. everyone should take note of the conditions from sat. and learn to apply to upcoming swell predictions. good call swellinfo!
YYYYEEEESSSS!!! Saturday was very sweet! Clean all day and me and two friends surfed the entire day and did not see another surfer out anywhere near us. Fantastic longboard waves. Not enough push where we were for shortboards but plenty for longboards. Awesome day.......thank ya Jesus!!
I didn't get out Saturday but Sunday was a blast. Nice chest high waves, but not too peaky for a longboard.
Saturday was on time and Cricha really showed some uncanny surfing ability, thought Mr. Slater himself was out there!
