After a decent winter and hopeful spring, any predictions? (aside from more kooks in the water) Is there anything like the 'Farmer Almanac' which gives an overview of what we could expect and even into H season?
Based on my 32 years of surfing in New Jersey. We will see two good swells in the month of May. One shoulder high swell in June. July will be mostly knee to stomach high. August will see two tropical swells....one will be chest high the other a little overhead otherwise it will be small. September will yield 3 solid swells. October another 3.
Two sources, saying that we are not going to get waves this season... AGAIN... http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/04/10/colorado-state-hurricane-forecast/7544005/ http://www.weather.com/news/weather...season-outlook-atlantic-2014-el-nino-20140324 On a positive note, they are ALWAYS wrong. in 2012, there were more than twice the amount of storms than were predicted. In 2013, they predicted 9 hurricanes but we only got two... So, they say we won't get any action, so with that being said, we should wax up our mini-guns and expect the summer of 1995 all over again, with 19 swell producing monsters spinning up and down the east coast.
20140324[/url] On a positive note, they are ALWAYS wrong. in 2012, there were more than twice the amount of storms than were predicted. In 2013, they predicted 9 hurricanes but we only got two... So, they say we won't get any action, so with that being said, we should wax up our mini-guns and expect the summer of 1995 all over again, with 19 swell producing monsters spinning up and down the east coast.[/QUOTE] they ARE always wrong, aren't they. regardless, i (still) buy it every time …….and we ARE overdue……yup yup…19 monsters - like the sound of that.
Yeah, for sure. No way of knowing. I just can't help but think we are LONG overdue. Seriously, I feel like there was not one substantial storm worthy of chasing up and down the coast last year. I mean, nothing to even get the blood pumping. Sandy was nice almost two years ago, but since then.... ugh. I would LOVE a few reasons to get off this island and chase some waves this summer and fall... So, I guess my outlook is: It CANT be any worse than last year... I remember us all sitting on this site in early october, talking about "Man, there is still time... There are still a couple weeks left"... And NOTHING.
i'm going to agree with the tropical forecasts for the summer. the water temp is still SO LOW that i can't see it getting to the 70+ area in late summer and if it does it'll be quick. if you remember back to spring 2012 there was surf but the water temps were also much higher much earlier which led to a rather active tropical season for 2012. also EL NINO [video=youtube_share;IvmeUStFvz8]http://youtu.be/IvmeUStFvz8[/video]
Remember a couple years ago when they were calling for an EPIC fall. They were predicting something like 18 hurricanes or something. Fall rolls around, and we didn't have a SINGLE hurricane. Was that last fall? Is my memory that horrible?
I think it was last year kind sir... We all sat around, waiting, and waiting and our "Man, can't wait to get into some cane surf" quickly turned into, I better dust off my 6 mil, get the hoods and gloves out. At least all the kooks are gone kinda talk. Making light of a terrible season, hoping that we all dont start leaping off overpasses.
Yeah i guess it was last fall... Damn I'm really loosing it. I mean, the winter definitely made up for such an awful fall. I think I surfed at least once a week while working full time. We deserve a good summer though. I have forgotten what a board feels like without lbs and lbs of rubber between me and my main b!tch.
Last summer was piss poor aside from a few thankful excursions to Rhodey. October and November had some quality swells and the air temps were warm as hell then. 61 degrees at 4pm on November 19th with clean swell chest high. Not sure where the rest of you were. First weekend of November was 71 out and shoulder to head high and clean in Rhodey. Mid-October was a sick full moon swell in the mid 60's at night in Maine.
That water temperature can rebound quickly. Keep an eye on the Bermuda High. To be honest, I would be down for a fat Bermuda High that pumped 2.5-4 footers all summer. Just being able to trunk it and have a ripable wave is cool, plus red flags are out, swimmers aren't and surf all day anywhere without tickets or being herded into the little "surfing only" areas. Think about all the sandbars that would be working. Not every sandbar works with the "epic swells." I know we have had these threads about consistency vs. big waves, I love a bigger wave. Shoot, who doesn't? Just think about it...you can surf every day and a short board is in the equation. 3-4 on the east coast still keeps a lot of people out of the water. Sure the inside at some places may be choked with those unable to get through, but that's better than no surf or longboards only for weeks on end. If we were getting 3-4 all summer in VB, imagine how great the spots that catch more swell will be? I may do a Jersey trip to visit the fam... BTW, (not to derail the thread), how do your locals handle the Bermuda Highs vs. Hurricane Swells? We can get it alright here. How about Jersey and SC?
I remember days of 80 degrees and waist plus here this winter. I can live with that, but we need those bigger, windier days to clear the peaks.
Just moved to coastal SC recently, but in 2012, it was present and spun some swell up to the gulf coast. So, I guess depending on it's position, it will be great. Our water stays plenty warm down here so thats not really a factor, but if it would hold its proper position and not get too close, I would expect that both SC, southern NC and Jersey would go ballistic. It it gets too south or west, I think most activity strikes in the Gulf area. But what I gather from the Bermuda High's is that its just a sling shot for swells. It will hold tropical depressions and storms and when it moves a little one way or the other, it launches them up a coast line. Where it lands, nobody knows. From a surfing standpoint, I guess its the beez-neez. I would also assume they produce enough local windswell activity to keep things fun on a very regular basis.... I have not tracked Highs like that for a hobby really, but I did realize for whatever reason, the summer down here was LEAPS and bounds better than the winter. Its not epic, but there were 2-4 days per week on a regular basis of drifty, local windswell in the chest plus area. It was actually heavier in the summer quite a few times down here. Again, nothing epic, but way more wave activity than normal the rest of the year, and followed by such a terrible fall, summer felt like a northshore winter in comparison. I guess there may have been a Bermuda high, close enough that it was just spinning and spinning and getting that local windswell coming, with the occason shift of it getting the wind back offshore... But I will take punchy beach break with onshore wind all day over clean dribbles with offshores.
Thanks for the feedback bros... I guess weather is always hard to predict, but seems to always be on my mind
don't worry, there will be plenty of surf. on thursdays. why? b/c i just got summoned to state grand jury duty starting in mid-july. so once a week, i'll be hauling my ass up to trenton for the day. so there you go. enjoy. don't say i never did anything for you folks.
Many are forecasting this year to be an El Nino year. What has the EC historically done during an El Nino year?
