2013 / 2014 record stretch for low activity in Atlantic. Reasons why?

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Ecsrfr26, Oct 12, 2014.

  1. Ecsrfr26

    Ecsrfr26 Active Member

    25
    May 3, 2010
    I would love to hear anyone's feedback on this.

    I've been surfing for a long time and can't help but notice the reduced swell in recent years. This has been a record stretch for the most calm period in the Atlantic. Nearly every storm has been losing energy and turning away from the coast. It appears the storm machine is just broken. There's been some strange environmental factors going on. Apparently there's been a shearing wind of dry air coming off the Sahara, instead of warm moist are need for activitiy, but also even worst, an unexpected weakening of the thermohalin Circulation, basically a current convayor belt. Not good.

    The question is, are these **** waves here to stay or will things return to normal?
     
  2. tropic surfer

    tropic surfer Well-Known Member

    181
    Dec 7, 2011
    just read a few days ago that Earth is going through a polar shift---it ain't just global warming--and that the government knows about it but won't tell the public because nobody would go to work tomorrow.
    Read it on the internet so it must be true.
    We get Sahara dust here a lot, seems to choke off the clouds that want to create rain. It's been a drought year here.
    Never saw Sahara dust here in the 70's.
     

  3. Ecsrfr26

    Ecsrfr26 Active Member

    25
    May 3, 2010
    Year after year it had always been the same way. Summer's flat ( Mid June, July, and most of August). The end of August it would always kick in like clockwork. The ocean would stay generally active through Sept, Oct, Nov, and decrease slightly from December through February, although still receiving some powerful storms and Noreasters. Spring would pick up again March, April, May, and the start to go flat again in June. Of course it's not an exact science but that was the general activity pattern. Now it's just all f'd up.

    I've actually read the same thing. Although I think the real reason is something to due with the polar ice caps melting and the colder fresh water on the surface effecting the current convener belt pattern, and then affecting the normal storm path. Also combined with the dry winds coming off the Sahara, instead of moist air from the Congo. The scary thing is that the normal weather patterns are being thrown out of wack. Who knows what will happen. Maybe we'll have years of inactivity, maybe we'll get wiped out by a monster storm. They can't even predict next weeks weather so nobody seems to know whats going on.
     
  4. worsey

    worsey Well-Known Member

    Oct 13, 2013
    NEVER have we had a better year w/respect to storm trax w/respect to storm frequency.
    just LOOK at this one; the last one and the next one...and the others.
     
  5. aka pumpmaster

    aka pumpmaster Well-Known Member

    Apr 30, 2008
    this thread is proof that Idiocracy is a prophetic film
     
  6. chicharronne

    chicharronne Well-Known Member

    Jun 22, 2006
    Earth Wobble caused by the presence of Planet X on the other side of the Sun. If the dust is red, it's from nibiru.
     
  7. brewengineer

    brewengineer Well-Known Member

    Jun 22, 2011
    My thoughts exactly.
     
  8. SI_Admin

    SI_Admin Guest

    It has been a lower then average Tropical Season as predicted by the seasonal forecasters. Large scale climate patterns, such as ENSO (El Nino), are constantly changing and have large scale influences, so the fact that we have less hurricanes this season doesn't mean doomsday is upon us.

    Dry air coming off Africa is not strange. That area is a desert, so that air is dry and dusty, its just the weather pattern that we are in right now.

    The slowing down of the North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation, is a theory proposed, due to the influence of global warming. Ice melting in the North Atlantic region, reduces salinity, and also the density of the water. The North Atlantic is significant as this is where the down welling of water occurs that brings water from the surface to the bottom. When the water density is decreased, this down-welling will slow down, or perhaps halt as some hypothesize. This would break down major ocean currents, such as the gulf stream and could alter climate significantly.
     
  9. Ecsrfr26

    Ecsrfr26 Active Member

    25
    May 3, 2010
    Thanks for the input, hopefully we will have some stronger activity late fall/winter.
     
  10. zach619

    zach619 Well-Known Member

    Jan 21, 2009
    More Global Colding.... I ain't worried though. I know a guy that has a decent sized bunker right by the beach.
     
  11. sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    Jun 17, 2013
    There is a factor called the NAO, I don't know what it stands for. If it is positive, low pressure systems hug and go up the east coast too close to produce fetch. Negative NAO means these lows from cold fronts go off the OBX and head northeast over open ocean, thus giving us fetch down here in the souff. Since Oct 10 it has been trending negative, and should be predominately negative this fall/winter/spring. I don't know if it has anything to do with El Nino, but if so it makes sense. A polar shift would give us good waves, don't you think, maybe in the 56 to 100 foot range at 4 seconds, no?
     
  12. aka pumpmaster

    aka pumpmaster Well-Known Member

    Apr 30, 2008
    North Atlantic Oscillation
     
  13. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    I call it the "NRK", nobody really knows. Let me know when you all figure out mother nature and can predict everything to a T.
     
  14. cepriano

    cepriano Well-Known Member

    Apr 20, 2012
    best answer on here
     
  15. Ecsrfr26

    Ecsrfr26 Active Member

    25
    May 3, 2010
    The NRK theory is probably the most likely scenario. All that really matters is if this is just a bad year and a temporary fluke, or the new Atlantic.

    At the end of the day I just want our waves back, however they get here. We can only hope this lack of activity isn't here to stay. I've never seen the waves this bad this time of year. I've surfed enough east coast years to know this isn't normal. If not I may have to move back to the West coast because I'm losing my sanity.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2014
  16. cepriano

    cepriano Well-Known Member

    Apr 20, 2012
    oooo k I just realized ur in florida,I was gonna say nj has been pretty good this year.sure we barely had any cane swells,the 2 we did had sucked,the windswells were better and bigger.the last 3 years in nj been the best its ever been,as far as winter swells,not summer groundswells,we never get those,tropical storms at best
     
  17. brewengineer

    brewengineer Well-Known Member

    Jun 22, 2011
    It will happen one day, but we aren't there yet. Even so, I think Micah posted some good information. Weather is all part of a complex closed system that can also be affected by outside forces. The modeling seems to be improving with increased computing power. I am guessing many of us will be alive to see weather prediction down to an exact science. This has been brewengineer's daily insight from the world of tomorrow. Next week we will be discussing quantum teleportation and what it means for the cellular communication industry.
     
  18. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    How arrogant to think we as humans will actually figure out mother nature completely. That my friend, will NEVER happen, I don't care which school you go to, how often you go, how many advancements in technology comes along, or how smart you or the next guy is.

    It will NEVER ever, ever, ever happen. The best we can ever do is forecast and guess within a relatively close proximity, but right when we think we've got it figured out, nature will throw us another curve ball. We (humans) are not in control, no matter how hard we try. We just aren't. Scientist, engineers, etc. have a hard time accepting this, and I think it's wonderful that youse guys are pursuing the answers to the world so diligently, but it's a fools errand i'm afraid.

    Ecsrfr26 - dude, IDK what Florida you live in but surfing has been pretty damn consistent for the better part of the YEAR, not the last couple weeks, but the YEAR. You just have to be willing to drive a little to get to the goods. You can't sit in JAX all the time and wait for it to come to you. My buddy KahunaKai just drove down from Jax yesterday to meet me at the Inlet and we had a great time. He said it was crap at home, even the Poles weren't really working that well, but it was 3-5ft down South a bit. Was it epic or perfect conditions? No, but it was fun and had some size on sets.

    If you really want to surf consistently, you'll even hit the Gulf when it's working. That requires a bit more commitment I know, but hey man, there are waves to be had there too. You do drive don't you?
     
  19. cepriano

    cepriano Well-Known Member

    Apr 20, 2012
    dood we got mother nature in the bag by her throat.global warming,melting ice caps and polar vortexes on the eastcoast,sunny days in December,freezing days in august.the meterologists don't even know wtf they are talking about,they stand behind a green screen with a clicker reading the "forecast" off a teleprompter.trust brah we got this shyt figured out.

    il end it with a quote from George carlin,

    "the planets fine,its the people who aren't"
     
  20. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    ^^^ This right here covers it HAHA, could of saved me a lot of typing!