SI just can't pick up the swell and period... the models can't pick up these Low's, especially when very close to shore. The forecast never showed above 8-9 seconds but the buoys have been showing over 10 to 15 seconds all day. I noticed this last year with any of the long range forecast with the tropics. The thing is, the swell height is relatively close but period is rarely accurate with higher period swells. Example, when you scroll across the swell chart for today, it does not show the accurate buoy readings. Is it unpredictable? I am not complaining b/c I use it as a tool, to cross reference all data. I just think it is very difficult to predict long range...mid to long period swells with these models. Moral...I don't think they pump up the swell forecast early on for clicks but think it is just very difficult to model.
I think you are right. AI has only come so far. One day the machines will be under forecasting the swell to keep us humans out of the lineup so they get the best waves.
Yea...the droids would rule the peak and know all the secret spots. It's crazy how much I use the computer to watch for waves....back in the day it was local on the 8s and the newspaper showing any fronts moving through.
I sort of noticed the opposite in years past. Im talking mainly for SENC though. I remember a few times cross referencing the buoys and SI report and they linked up perfectly.
A little bit of longer period swell was sneaking north and there was so little local swell that the dominant period was 15 sec. My guess based on surfing MD this afternoon and evening is that the 15 sec energy was pretty small. It was Really fun but only about waist high. On the positive side it was CRAZY glassy and water above 60. Very warm in a 3/2. No need at all for boots or gloves
Good Point...the severe angle running north. But, it was showing on a near shore buoy and the "toggle" on the SI graph was not showing it. I guess the graph data is dominant for say an East facing beach and would not necessarily pick up the Severe South direction which seems logical. It just seems like the near shore buoys and the adjacent shoreline would be more congruent...versus buoys that are way off shore.
