Hurricane Helene looking good...

Heads up for Helene...

Helene became a hurricane as of the NHC advisory this morning, and her path/intensity are looking very good at this point for more East Coast G swells.

As of now, Helene swells are looking to start arriving around Wednesday and build through the end of the week.

Quick check at atmospheric patterns, show high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and good winds for the end of next week for most areas. Check the GFS maps from Unisys here - Swellinfo pressure maps will be here soon
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_500p_9panel.html

 

The models are really split right now as far as the direction Helene takes in 2-3 days. The GFS model (which is the link above) shows the more WNW path rather than the NNW path shown on the GFDL. We'll get much more swell if Helene takes more of the WNW track.

Model tracks:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200608_model.html#a_topad

 

Hey Lump,

The models are looking in better agreement today. This next cold front that will be moving off the coast during the middle of the week is expected to shift Helene's track northward. However, if you loook at the Swellinfo wave maps (GFS), you can see that the storm becomes nearly stationary around day 5-6. So, all indications are that the north shift will occur, but the longer Helene moves towards the coast, the more swell we get... and sitting out there sationary, is plenty fine.

Here's the NHC discussion this morning:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200608.disc.html#a_topad

Small G swells will likely start coming in around Wednesday, and the meet of this swell is looking to hit around Friday and into the weekend, and possibly last into early next week! This is going to be another long period swell event (prob. longer than Frances 15-16sec+), so your going to have to choose spots wisely The SE swell direction should squeeze into the eastern CT and RI shores - sorry no swellinfo forecast for CT...

On another topic, Helene's current path is like dead aim at Delmarva, and smack dab in the middle is Bermuda... Ya, its a tiny island, but I've been curious for while, how much dissipation on these G swells occurs from Bermuda.?

 

Well, I dont think I've ever seen any visual evidence, but I've heard of some hidden gems in CT, or maybe I just made it up

If you look on the maps, a 120-130 degree or so SE swell will sneak in between Montauk and Block Island - no problem. Then, it has to deal with getting around Fishers Island.

Looks like it could break on the Helene swell. Anyone ever surf CT?

All indications are that Helene is going to race off to the North after 2-3 days, but she is still going to hook us up with some solid G swells (looks like peaking Friday and Saturday).

 

longer period swells starting to show on the buoys this evening. Helene ground swell should be kicking on Wednesday with good winds for many areas

 

Helene Ground swells have arrived.

Surfed Ocean City, MD on Wednesday. Pretty small until the afternoon. Things certainly improved with the incoming tide with 2-3-4' surf and the occasional, inconsistent 5' set. As with most long period ground swells in the Delmarva area, there were only a select few spots that were holding it with good shape.

Buoys are up today. 3-4-5' at 14-15secs, so plenty of energy out there. This swell isn't going to be as big as orginial predicted, due to the fact that Helene's northward motion is earlier than anticipated, but the swell should slowly increase through Saturday.

Frontal system approaches the coast Friday into Saturday.... so shifting winds over the next few days, but it appears that many spots along the east coast will see periods of clean conditions.

Enjoy!

 

Hey, thanks Hannah - Were doing our best

Looks like this swell is going to peak on Saturday before dropping off substantiall on Sunday.

HATTERAS ALERT
This next frontal system is going to bring stiff SSW/SW winds. A lot of areas are going to get trashed by the winds, but the more East or Northeast facing breaks will be best...

The Outer Banks in particular are looking quite good for Saturday !