New Tropical System to watch

As of 7:00 am EST Sun Nov 8 2015 ...
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight in
association with a low pressure area located about 100 miles
southeast of the Turks and Caicos. Surface observations indicate
that gale-force winds have been occurring in brief squalls mainly to
the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward over the Bahamas and then turns northwestward.
Locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are possible over
Hispaniola today, and over the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern
Bahamas during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

 

Looking more like the real deal now--

As of 1:00 pm EST Sun Nov 8 2015 ...
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
in association with a low pressure system located just north of
the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. In addition,
satellite images indicate that the circulation of the low is
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is likely to form tonight or on
Monday while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward
near or over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are possible across the Turks and Caicos and
most of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

 

As of 7:00 pm EST Sun Nov 8 2015 ...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure area
located about 60 miles east-northeast of Mayaguana in the
southeastern Bahamas continue to show signs of organization. Recent
satellite images indicate that the circulation has become better
defined since this morning, and only a slight increase in
organization of the system would result in the formation of a
tropical depression or tropical storm tonight or Monday. Interests
in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of the low since a
Tropical Storm Warning may be required for a portion of the central
and northwestern Bahamas tonight or early Monday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

 

Kate!

Is anyone going to see much action from Kate?