This Saturday in NJ

Way to jinx it asshole! From here on out.. understand... the forecasts are pretty much inaccurate anything a day or more out.

 

saturday will be flat, everyone stay in bed and dont surf

 

still a ways out especially for the quick moving S/SW swells. Keep checking in on the updates. Tomrrow looks pretty fun though...

 

exactly...I'll take take these little bursts of S wind swell one day at a time. At least in Delaware/MD its basically all about finding a few hours with more west in the wind than south...and remember that jetties which block the SW winds, also blocking a lot of the south wind swell...7 second swell doesnt wrap into sheltered spots very well.

 

First of all, nice screenname douche... Secondly, way to be THAT GUY that asks "how's the waves gonna be this weekend, I was lookin at the forecast blah blah blah"...

 

Two Weeks from Now

Hey everyone. I was looking at the Atlantic models, and looks like there could be a good swell coming in two weeks. What do you think the chances are that there will be good waves?

 

I want to surf october 1st 2012 in lewis delaware will there be any rights to ride that day???

 

Yes and most definitely YES.

 

well you have two possibilities - either it will stay that way, or it won't stay that way - one or the other. So, your chances are 50%. Would you get on a plane that had a 1-in-two chance of crashing? **** no! So, don't take any unnecesary risks - stay home Saturday. Jeez what is with these people. Then again on the flip side, how many sessions have I had in the last 5-6 years where there "wasn't supposed" to be any waves; where the 'net forecasters were calling for flatness or 1' and I was out there by myself or with a neighbor or two surfing 3-4' just about perfect? A lot, almost as many to make up for the times when the surfline and swelldude wizards get it right and there's 35-40 mostly clueless, mediocre-ly skilled never-been-seen-before heads in the water at every spot on a chest high pumping S groundswell

 

Looks like you jinxed it! Don't you realize the ocean has internet access and checks this forum regularly. It must have logged in and seen your thread and now the forecast has crapped out. Damn it!

 

If I'm 100 miles from the beach and leave at 2pm traveling east at 60mph, and make two stops of 10 minutes and 14 minutes, and a swell 2000 miles off africa is traveling south eastward at a period of 12 seconds at what point saturday will I and the SE swell arrive at the same point?

 

Assuming East Coast the answer is never. The swell originated 2000 miles off of africa and is traveling southeast; away from the East Coast and towards the African Coast. I think you meant to say the swell is traveling northwest (which means it is originating from the southeast). If that's the case and the swell is originating 2000 miles directly west of the African Coast; just north of the Leeward Islands (the african coastline is probably 8,000 miles+ long and i am assuming the west african coast here, specifically Western Sahara).

Assuming you are surfing in the Delmarva area the swell's point of origin is approximately 2600 nautical miles away. Now height is important here as well as swell decay should be factored in. But you only asked for when the swell would arrive, not how big.

Let's assume a height of 15ft (buoy readings outside the storm). So we have a 15ft 12sec SE swell originating 2600 nautical miles away from Delmarva. From materials that I've read a swell travels at the speed of 1.5 knots times its period.

Given the above: 2600/(12*1.5)=144 hours or 6 days. The swell will arrive in 6 days.

 

how do you know all of that information?

 

Because he is the Beaner!!!

 

Because is he constantly smoking beaners...

 

50% and no it wont.

 

I have no idea what that means. Is it a marijuana reference? I know this stuff because I like to read about it.

Surf Science by Tonny Butt and Paul Russell is a good one
Wetsand Wavecast guide by Nathan Todd Cool is a good book as well

The stormrider guides usually have some info on forecasting. Surfline has some stuff. It's out there, just gotta find it. I'm not a guru like micah or lumpy though...(lump has yeeears of experience on me...haha)

 

Hope Saturday holds!!!

 

Did you guys see its supposed to be bicep-high and clean on Saturday???