99L may hit EC Florida as TS exit into gulf

The 12Z Euro:

at 120 hours, 99L is over the Central Bahamas and starting to strengthen.

144 Hours out (Sunday) it is gaining strength just north of Andros island in the Bahamas.

168 Hours, Monday, landfall near Fort Lauderdale at hurricane or strong TS strength 995mb, strengthening as it approaches.

Continues around this strength to Northwest of the Ft. Myers area (Exits near Venice Beach) strengthening back in the Gulf. (Tues, Aug 30th)

Wed, Aug 31st, 960mb (close to major or at major) hurricane in the Gulf west of Tampa and south of Panama City Beach.

Final frame Sep. 1st, in the Gulf (950mb) south of Tallahassee moving back toward Florida.

Second landfall @ 942 mb (typical of a cat 4) in the big bend.

Recon will be out there tomorrow to sample the system.



Post

 

You're welcome!

 

Flhurricane.com:

"
18Z GFS again shows a strong ULL shearing apart 99L and not really developing it, what is there does move to the west though.

Recon tomorrow hopefully will help the subsequent runs. Having "no system" to speak of in the GFS to a cat 4 in the Gulf in the Euro is a pretty big spread. The National Hurricane Center's current 5 day chances is 50% and that coin flip chance is a good indicator. Dry air and possible shear are the negative factors for development.

Interestingly it also moves the remnants of Fiona over Florida on Sunday. "

 

From flhurricane.com is the following speculation, bottom line is that it's too early to know:

"Most striking about the 8/23 0z runs, is that there is quite a lot of convergence... However, the GFS and GFDL in particular may have initialized 99L too weakly, for as of 0700z, the system is coming together better than they seem to have advertised.

The trend of overnight improvement has actually been going on for several moons now, but tonight it finally looks to be "catching" enough that it just might stick. Another 6-18 hours should tell, and also, Recon is set to fly in today.

In the very near term, it looks as if shear of 99L is and will possibly continue to be relaxing, as troughiness and associated 20+ knots of westerly shear brushes by to its north and east. Afterwards, as the Low appears to be pulling just north of due west at a good clip, it could easily run into a pocket of high net-effective westerly shear by mid-week, which would argue for some impairment if it lasts too long. However, as by this time 99L may already be a tropical cyclone, the damage may be insufficient to prevent it continuing westward to northwestward (depending) as a named storm, or stronger (Lounge material at this point, but entirely plausible).

It is late in the week that the models are joining up together in remarkable fashion, for what is a somewhat convoluted pattern. That there is such unanimity given the relative complexity is reason to take note. Here is the 00Z breakdown:

GFS: High pressure builds in behind week troffiness off east coast sending the remnant circulation of Fiona across central Florida, and pulling up a weak intensity open wave 99L by the hand into the Bahamas, and imparting extra vorticity in the process. There 99L becomes a TD... by next Thursday.
Odds: Seems unlikely owing to the recent and current organizational trends with 99L, and the forward speed of both systems.

ECMWF: Like the GFS, the Euro builds sends the remnant Fiona across Florida (more north), and grabs 99L. However, this happens both sooner, and with an initially stronger 99L wave. In this scenario, 99L becomes a TD this coming Saturday night, crossing south Florida Sunday night into Monday as a strrong TS, runs up the west coast as a strong hurricane, is then picked up by a passing trof and now crosses north Florida from the west as a modest hurricane next Wednesday the 31st, running up the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, before being ejected northeast back out to sea as an intensifying Cat 2+ over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Thursday Sept 1st.
Odds:This looks more reliable than the GFS run above it. Plus, this is the ECMWF. However, all the usual disclaimers apply. Especially that far out!

CMC Like the ECMWF, the Canadian starts out with a somewhat healthier 99L, and also retains a somewhat more coherent Fiona (or remnant Fiona). The two meet up well north of the Bahamas this coming Friday night, with x-Fiona imparting substantial additional vorticity into 99L, with 99L becoming a solid TS that is driven into Georgia, and then running rapidly inland up the east coast until merging with a passing trof on the 31st while over Virginia.
Odds: This also looks more reliable than the GFS, and perhaps as plausible as the ECMWF run - the main caveat being that this is the CMC, and also all the usual disclaimers apply this far out!

HWRF Starting with a somewhat stronger 99L than the GFS, but not as much as either the ECMWF or CMC, but with a far more resilient TD Fiona, the 0z HWRF develops 99L into a TD just north of Puerto Rico this Wednesday afternoon, intensifying into a strong TS and then minimal hurricane just north of the easternmost Bahamas this Friday night, and then rapidly intensifying into a Major Hurricane while turning left into the westernmost Bahamas this Saturday night
Odds: This looks more reliable than the GFS, and unfortunately, only slightly less possible than either the ECMWF or CMC's less bullish alternatives;

 

"
99L has a 60% chance to develop over the next few days. Recon did not find an organized low level circulation, but the area was in better shape for development than previously thought.

Forecast models are mixed on the fate of this system, but the majority all generally move it toward Florida. Some like the Euro forecast development and others such as the GFS and HWRF do not (just a rain storm). Based on the Euro it could impact Florida as soon as this Sunday. (moved up from Monday)

Those in the E. Caribbean, Bahamas and Florida need to keep a close watch on the future of this system."

 

National Hurricane Center

As of 8:00 pm EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 ...

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser
Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better defined. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this
system could become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the
Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions could become
more conducive later this week while the system moves near the
southeastern and central Bahamas. Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests from the islands of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of
these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
for further details.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Florida boys: Time to check up on the chainsaw to be sure it will operate. Check that the outdoor grill has fuel. Top off the cars gas tanks. Find the shutters in case we need to put them up Saturday.