99L may hit EC Florida as TS exit into gulf

A storm this far off, moving NE won't do anything for east coast.
Not trying to piss in anyone's cornflakes. Maybe everyone is just wave starved and reaching for straws?

 

Models have a NW track as a Cat 1/2 for 4 days though. Too far away for anything large to make it to the coast but some fun small to medium very long period swell should hit the northeast.

 

Thanks for the update Betty. You should sign your posts like the NWS folks do: FORECASTER BETTY $$

Fingers crossed for a slow moving, strong storm, that stays out to sea. Just close enough that we all get our medicine

 

I see Gaston as the real wave play here, but it has to get far enough west before the recurve to have a major swell impact, especially for the NE as you note.

The southeast (south of NC) is kinda screwed anyway given the long northeasterly onshore fetch that has set up with the tightenting pressure gradient. Any development of 99L will only increase that. Head for those breaks protected from northeast winds!

8 am EDT NHC update: 99L has no well-defined circulation; conditions marginal for development near-term. Aircraft going to investigate again later today. Formation chances 60/80 percent for 48 hrs/5 days respectively.

Cabo Verde tries throwing more stuff at us in early September. If at first you don't succeeed, try try again...

 

Central NJ will take anything at this point, but the only real swell potential for us comes from 99L potential. Gaston is going to send long period close outs on a ESE direction to most of NJ. 99L has the potential for a SSE fetch that are more favorable.

 

Winds are gonna be absolute sh!t for us the entire week thanks to 99. Can't see a favorable track for this. Only hope is it skirts off into the gulf before gaston swell arrives. Haven't surfed a (potential) 18 second period before.

 

Yeah, it sux. Even if 99 does move to GoMex, we'll (southeast U.S./FL) still have to contend with the NE'ly fetch from that wretched high drifting off the mid-Atlantic coast. It's in no hurry to leave.

 

There are a few reefs around here that I think can handle 12 second swell. Not sure- I haven't been here long enough to know how everything works on various swells. The longest I'm seeing on Surfline is 14 seconds at this point.

There's one reef in particular I've been watching for a year now. I think I might try it late Tuesday if 2nd Beach is the **** show I expect it to be if there's swell in the water.

 

we have one, super sharky break down here that can handle the long period stuff. I have no idea how high a 2 ft @ 18 sec swell will jack up. Either way the paddle out is through a gauntlet and I'm not trying to surf that unless it's a last resort kind of deal.

 

Where is "down here?" No need to be specific, but generally?

 

Hey Toonces how long have you been in RI?

 

Central Florida

 

Everyone go to Stuart! Yahooooo

 

You may be surprised at what the reefs can handle here for size. When it gets double overhead + , the currents come into play.

Hope the forecast are right, always expect about half the size of the forecast for long range swells around here. would love to see chest high+ plus with offshore winds. Been a few months since a real swell...

[video=youtube;MXKtJf5PHgM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXKtJf5PHgM[/video]

 

Fiona fizzled into nothing after accelerating its forward speed. Gaston is now accelerating its forward speed as well. Another fizzle out.
Both will give East Coast NADA large. Waves?? Yeah maybe some, but nothing meritorious, unfortunately.

 

18z GFS depiciton of 99L: crickets

 

Assuming the track stays low, and that seems to be a good probability, I am worried about the intensity forecast accuracy. When it crosses the Gulf Stream, if it is moving slow, it could power up. Keep an eye out for what they say about forward speed. The water offshore is bathwater.