Hurricane matthew and east coast

You mean "trev"???

 

Yup, it went from off the charts over the weekend to maybe waist high in NE. Hope everyone down south stays safe.

 

The track is not set in stone, give it time and more changes will come.

 

Alright these models are driving me crazy. Now talking a possible loop?!

 

Phew, Holy cow forecast reflects a huge change looks like NC is going to get the Surf it deserves with minimal impact from the storm. Hope the rest of ya'll stay safe

 

This damn storm has had so many different tracks over the past week it is enough to make you batty. A loop to come back? Nutso land.

 

Yeah, trying to figure these things out is pointless. I remember in 2004 when Charley hit the other coast, I was living in South Tampa at the time and we were supposed to get a direct hit for the first time and it was looking pretty certain it was coming.

I went to bed thinking I was going to wake up to destruction. I had been up drinking and partying all night and ended up sleeping late into the morning. My cell phone was blowing up. It was my boss at work asking where the f*ck I was. HAHAHA

I told him waiting for the storm to pass, he said look outside... I did, it was a beautiful day, not a cloud in the sky! I turned on the TV and found out that the storm had taken a sudden turn inland at Port Charlotte / Punta Gorda and was completely devastating them. I breathed a sigh of relief, felt bad for those down South and then got my butt into work. True story.

 

Those forecast are basically what mathematicians refer to as Chaos Principle. One small change in a variable (speed, pressure, ) introduces unforeseen changes in outcome.
It is the reason ALL forecasting is suspect--we still have not discovered "The Code" by which all things can be explained mathematically, which is, what weather forecasting is!! You know, latitude, longitude....it's just graphing a storm with solving for x, then y.......etc.
Prof. Barry

Carry on!!

 

Yeah...like this morning's GFS model. System is still mucking around SE florida 10 days from now.

 

And to a lesser extent, the Euro:

 

Damn, we really, really need rain in eastern MA so this new forecast is bummer, although I guess the people on the Cape and Islands are happy with it.

 

"It ain't over until it's over!"

 

I think you are correct about trying to find "the code"... a big problem is the number of variables (to examine) and determining the weight of their influence on the major parameters (i.e., variable(s) of interest).

There are some system approaches that try to mathematically to "learn" the behavior of complex systems (i.e., the degree of the influence of the various system parameters) in order to predict the next step. It is no easy task, even with some relatively simpler "ideal" scenarios, so these weather predictions, although they have improved greatly, still have a ways to go.

By the way, any one interested in the various approaches to modeling can get learn a bit here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

 

You're welcome. I just cleared out my inbox btw, sorry bout that. Let me know if you need any specifics on any of those spots.

 

I blame you and your post regarding 17 footers. Lets face it Sigmund, you touched the money. Now we are all screwed. My rhino chaser is put back in the barn in favor of my foam Catch Surf. Might just get the handplane out and body surf a few 2 footers.

 

11 am update from the NHC hasn't changed near term track much if any. Hurricane Warning not extended further south. So it looks like it's gonna go a bit north of me. Good for me. Not so good for many others. Not letting my guard down and still carrying on with my preparating cuz things can and will change. We're still gonna get plenty of weather but probably not the worst of it. Hope you guys and gals further north don't get it too bad.

It's such a beautiful day out. Always is before the storm comes. Hard to believe that will be changing soon. The air doesn't have that weird tropical feel it gets when a system is nearby yet. Probably will by tonight. Hang tight.

 

We just got our official Hurricane Warning a little bit ago this morning. It's not looking too goo for our area, but i'm staying positive and have belief it'll be OK.

 

The official warning doesn't really change anything, I mean you knew it was coming, it's just that much closer. For my own sake, I'm just glad they didn't extend it further south cuz that would mean they think it might go further south. I know that doesn't help you any. Keep that positive attitude and do what you gotta do. You will make it through.

 

Yeah, it didn't change anything, just made it official is all. It doesn't look like any of my neighbors are too concerned about it, it's business as usual around here.