Invest may form just east of Bahamas

As of 2:00 pm EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 ...
A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over most of the Bahamas and adjacent waters of the
western Atlantic and the Florida Straits.

Environmental conditions
are currently unfavorable for any significant development to occur,

but they could become more conducive by Tuesday or Wednesday while
the system drifts eastward. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible over the Bahamas during the next
couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

 

As of 8:00 am EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 ...
A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over the
central and southeastern Bahamas and adjacent western Atlantic
waters is associated with a surface trough that is interacting with
an upper-level low. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
significant development, but they could become more conducive for
tropical or subtropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday or
Wednesday when the system begins to drift northward or
north-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Bahamas during the next
day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

 

" lower pressure extends from the Caribbean to the Bahamas. Some slow development/s in this region is possible this week, and NHC has highlighted the convection that has been flaring up along Nicole's trailing troff just east of Florida for a (50)% chance of becoming a depression or named storm by Friday"
Flhurricane.com

 

As of 2:00 pm EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 ...
A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent western
Atlantic waters is associated with a broad surface low. Upper-level
winds are expected to remains unfavorable for significant
development during the next day or two,

but they could become more
conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday
when the system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.

Locally heavy rainfall over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos should diminish by tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

 

It is now Incest 99L

 

Here it comes buoys!

Disturbance 1: 40% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 am EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 ...
Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located just
to the northeast of the southeastern Bahamas has become more
concentrated this morning, and surface observations indicate that
pressures are falling in the area. The low is expected to slowly
intensify as upper-level winds become more conducive, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form during the next day or
two as the low moves northward or north-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

 

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little
better organized since yesterday in association with a well-defined,
non-tropical low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the Turks and Caicos. The low is expected to acquire
some tropical characteristics as upper-level winds become more
conducive, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone will likely form
during the next few days. The low is forecast to move northward on
Wednesday and turn northwestward on Thursday, before heading
northeastward out to sea by the end of the week. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow
afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

 

As of 2:00 am EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 ...
An elongated area of low pressure located about 300 miles
east-northeast of the Central Bahamas is moving northwestward
at about 10 mph. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions could become
a little more conducive for the low to acquire some tropical
characteristics during the next day or so, and this system could
still become a subtropical or tropical cyclone before it merges with
a cold front over the western Atlantic late Friday. A NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50

 

O Otto


"Recon has found that the surface circulation of 99L, which briefly appeared well defined earlier today, has given way to a general state of elongated troffiness with multiple cyclonic swirls, and together with the diminished convection, does not yet meet the definition of a subtropical or tropical cyclone. However, recon is finding some near tropical storm-force winds, and there is still a window for this feature to become Otto before it probably meets up with an approaching front, by Saturday."

Flhurricane.com

 

No Otto:

of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 ...
An area of low pressure centered about 450 miles south-southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is moving northward.

The thunderstorm
activity is very limited and the chances for this system to become a
subtropical or tropical cyclone are diminishing.

This low is
expected to merge with a large frontal system tonight or early
Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent