Mid Atlantic Swellinfo Forecasts

Agree that the forecast missed it yesterday, which of course was the first time I made special arrangements with my boss to shift my work hours to accommodate after work instead of dawn patrol, since it seems like we've had a number of consecutive midweek swells where the cleanup has happened mid day and then the wind knocks it way down by the following morning. So naturally, that pattern ended once I changed my strategy in response.

Generally speaking I've still been pretty happy with the forecasts. I find them to be much better than surfline or MSW for this area. I've noticed that a number of recent swells the forecast has called for, like 2-4, or maybe 3-4+ and it's actually been bigger than that (most notably this past Sunday). But I'm fine with that, because if the forecast says 3-4 I'm going anyway and pleasantly surprised if/when it's actually head high. Bottom line is I don't put a ton of confidence in the actual size matching the forecast size, but if I just head to the beach whenever the SI forecast is at least 2-3' and green, I very rarely go home without paddling out and I very rarely end up kicking myself for missing great waves. Kind of like how I approached snow forecasts when I lived in CO... they were fairly accurate at telling me whether it was or was not going to snow. Now whether we got 3" or 3' was anyone's guess, but that's kind of part of the fun...

 

Speaking for the last 3 days--they have been right on target for NH. MSW, however, was way off, way way off.
Usually, I open my bedroom window--if I hear surf, I go. No hear surf, no go. I hope I never go deaf......

 

You actually look at MSW?

 

I check MSW about once every three months to see if it's magically become more accurate and it's inevitably the complete opposite of SI and surfline. Like 1-2 and SE winds when the other sites are saying 3-4 and NW winds, or vice versa. Surfline I glance at the free forecast for the next couple days sometimes when I am checking cams, and it's usually on the right track but I've found SI typically is slightly more accurate with the details in this area. It's never been accurate enough to even remotely tempt me to pay for premium.

 

MSW if I recall is based out of Europe, not the East Coast of the US, so that's probably why they are always so inaccurate. You pretty much use the same tools as I use.

 

Yeah. I'm fortunate enough that my house, my office, and most of my surf spots are all within 10-15 min of each other. And I've set up my work hours specifically so that I have at least 1-1.5 hours of free time between sunrise and when I have to be at work every single day of the year. So I use the forecast to determine whether to 1) go to the beach with all my gear expecting to paddle out, 2) take my dog to the beach sans gear to do a quick check and make sure there's not an unexpected swell (with enough time to run home and grab my sh*t for a quick session if warranted), or 3) sleep in or attend to other matters. My eyes tell me the rest. For afternoons, this time of year I usually just don't even think about it, but the cams tell me when it's worth trying to get out a couple hours early if possible.

 

I find them as accurate as Swellinfo, for this area. And also as inaccurate for this area as well.
They both run 50/50.
My open window method is flawless.

 

LOL I never really found MSW to be accurate at all around here. I would say SI and SL both pretty damn accurate but if one is disagreeing with the other the forecast is usually somewhere between the two forecasts so add em up and divide by two. For wind I use my weather app and Wunderground app. But yeah, it's always best putting my eye balls on it in person.

 

I do. My area is difficult to forecast due to our narrow swell window. A slight variation in angle can make a big difference. I refer to SI, MSW and a few other sources plus my own reconne and look for some sort of consensus. None of them get it right all the time. SI usually over calls it. MSW is usually better with the local wind choppe we often surf here. Best bet is to go check it in person. Then paddle out anyway. It's often better than it looks.

 

Whatever works for you, I think I stopped looking at their forecast like almost a decade ago because it's always so far off, at least in my experience.

 

I think there is a variation based on location as to the accuracy of the different forecast sites. I don't depend on any single one. They're all wrong at some point. SwellInfo often puts up some whacky forecsats for my area. They'll show a chest high wave that suddenly drops to near flat for six hours then back up to chest. Not believable at all. Also what appears on the left side doesn't always correlate with the chart on top. They've got some glitches in their algorithms.

They're all just tools. They all use the same raw data to calculate their forecasts. Some do it better than others for certain places and conditions. Learn what works for your spots and the various conditions, tides, etc. Best bet is usually your own reconne and spidey sense.

 

Naturally. Just sharing my experience with them is all, I always am surprised when I find someone uses them. But like you said, perhaps it's better at forecasting SFL vs. CFL.

 

Locally generated wind swells always give these forecasting sites fits.

 

You may be right.

 

There also used to be a +/- feedback button that you could submit whether it was over/under called. Oh the golden age of SI...

 

Good point. Never thought of it that way.
But, they use bouys to forecast; most wind swell are picked up by the bouys. Maybe they are LATE to pick up the wind swells.