Mid Atlantic Swellinfo Forecasts

I still look at MSW, and I usually don't find it to be all that off really. I put less stock in it then swellinfo or surfline, but I still use it. That said, there are times when it seems to completely $hit the bed, and just miss an event completely. This past weekend, MSW and SI were actually both more accurate than Surfline, and I think SI was probably the closest.

I like to see what they are all predicting in terms of the raw data, to see if their on the same page. Sometimes the raw data predictions are pretty equal, but the actual surf predictions vary, especially if the swell angle is severe. I'm no surf forecasting guru by any stretch, but sometimes even I can look at the data and tell the forecast is off one way or the other. I'm guessing there is a lot that goes into the algorithms they use and sometimes they just miss the mark.

I think tomorrow for central NJ could be an interesting case. One decent sized swell, but short period, hard south angle and dropping pretty quickly. Second swell is smaller 1-2' but with a longer (10s) period. Surfline is calling for 3-4', Swell-info 3+ and MSW only 1-2.

I'm guessing the bigger S swell doesn't really show up much due to the angle and the surf will be somewhere between MSW and Swellinfo's predictions, but I'll be interested to see who's prediction is actually closer. Sadly I cant surf tomorrow anyway, but I personally find the hard south angled swells around 180 degrees to be the toughest to predict so I am interested in what it does for my own knowledge.

 

I love wind swells, some of my best sessions have been from a fun 8-10 second swell, but 12-18 sec groundswells are mo betta!

 

SI and MSW are the only sites I use to get a general idea of when surf of any kind is expected. My most reliable source are my instincts and eyes. The sites are great tools to have if you have no clue when the surfs up and especially if you live away from the coast and don't really know how waves are generated and that's Awsome for the beginners. The ones that have been surfing for years can tell you where, when to be there. Too much tech has taken away the adventure and thought process of finding surf and when to be on it. A lot of the time you may miss the best part of the day because your computer said it not promising. Rely more on your instincts and don't put to much stock into the tech bullsh!t.
Besides were all here for the trash talk anyway.

 

Fair points. I don't know I even bother looking at forecasts anyways, I'm gonna go check it almost every day regardless.

 

i just check si, surfline, and the wather channel. rarely ill do more research. if theres gonna be waves and im gonna be able to surf them i like to just take my stuff and find a spot. living it up while im young and can surf most any day theres waves

 

I've been meaning to ask you that, do you pretty much just go to the beach every morning to check it? With board(s) and wetsuite? I realize wetsuite is less applicable/complicated where you live than up here.

The only reason I check at all really is to know whether I'm gonna take the extra 5 min to pack up my wetsuite/boots/gloves/towel and then have to hang everything back up when I get home, and whether or not to bring my dog to the beach... if there's a moderate to good chance of waves I'll take everything and leave the dog at home. If it's almost guaranteed to be flat I'll bring the dog but not the wetsuite, and can run home and trade if need be. Boards basically live in my car at all times. This mostly applies to winter, when it's a bit of an ordeal to pack up and rehang all my gear, and often a little cold to leave the dog in the car while surfing (he'd probably be fine, used to leave him in the car while skiing in CO unless it was below zero, but everyone did that out there, here I feel like I'd come back to PETA slashing my tires or some sh!t). In fall or on cooler days in the summer I just always bring 3/2 and dog and I'm ready for whatever. Hot summer days I again check the forecast and bring my dog when I'm pretty sure it's flat but leave him home if there's a decent chance of waves (I've got no problem leaving him in a cold car with a bunch of blankets for an hour, but wouldn't ever leave him in an excessively hot one).

Once or twice a month I will sleep in and not check it, but that pretty much only happens if I'm up really late the night before AND I'm 99% positive it's gonna be flat.

 

Well... I hope you got some this morning. Nice, clean waist high peelers with light offshores.

 

Well, since I haven't kicked my addiction to checking the buoy, forecasts and web cams in between sessions I have a general idea of what's going on out there at all times.

But, when it's borderline and I really want to surf but I know there is a good chance it won't be good I will still bring a board or two with me and I'll be suited up already if it's cold enough to warrant it, just in case it's better than I thought it would be (doesn't happen often).

If it's crap when I get there I'll either walk the beach and hope to find a sandbar that's working, give time for tide / wind to improve (morning sickness) or if it's absolutely not happening I will just turn around and go home and look forward to the next day. Sometimes I'll just go for a paddle on my LB if it's flat.

Being that I haven't kicked the addiction of checking it on the web first, there are days where I end up staying home and not checking in person at all, based on what I know as far as wind / swell and more importantly, the tide.

My decision making usually goes like this, based on live buoy and wind reports... If there is swell over 2ft and wind is good but tide is bad, i'll still check it in person. If wind is bad and tide is bad, I stay home.

Long story short, if you're gonna check it, bring a board and be prepared to paddle out, no going back home.

 

Makes sense. I know embarrassingly little about how buoy readings work, and also embarrassingly little about swell directions and types and periods and what they mean for the various breaks around here (starting to figure this second part out a little more). I've alternated between living 5 min from the beach or living 2+ hours away, but never in between, which means I've almost always either been in a situation where I can look at it firsthand or in a situation where on most days I'm not surfing no matter what. I really need to learn more in this area though, just to deepen my understanding. In theory it couldn't hurt, though at the same time I tend to go overboard with things and overthink things and there's certainly something to be said for the simplicity of just waking up and going to the beach every day and keeping this facet of my life completely separated from computers and technology and overanalysis (i.e. exactly the opposite of what I'm doing right now as I post on a surf predictin' forumme).

 

I hear ya. My suggestion is to get familiar with reading the buoy. If all other tools didn't exist, you could do well enough with a buoy to determine surf. Take the buoy data and then determine based on the swell direction and wind direction what type of beach setup you need to insure best results and find whatever beach nearest you that meets those criteria and go there first.

For example there are days where I know nothing else will work except for a spot with North wind protection or vice versus it might require South wind protection, or perhaps the swell angle has a bit of South in it so I will head toward a beach that faces more south than the other beaches or at least faces E, rather than the ENE that most of the beaches around here face. You want the swell to hit the sand bars at the correct angle, too much and it won't break right or will run parallel to shore too much and won't break much at all.

What you can do is take the buoy reading and then pull up Google maps or w/e and look at the coastline of your area and use common sense to make your conclusion on where you think the swell will hit the best. Also, pay attention to any possible swell blockers, such as little islands or being too tucked away / protected from other parts of the coastline that stick out more. You want to look for swell exposure while also looking for wind protection, unless it's one of those perfect days with no wind.

 

Man, I wish we had a wave data buoy relavent to my area. The nearest is Fort Pierce which is 100 miles north and just offshore. Mostly useless for me here. Therefore I must rely more upon the various forecast sites and cams. After a while you get a feel for what is likely to happen and where things will work or not work. Best bet is still to hit the beach and give it an eyeball reconne. Then paddle out anyway since you're already there.

 

Yeah, being in the Bahama shadow probably has a lot to do with it, they probably would put a buoy right there if it wasn't for them lol

 

I guess they figure we don't get any waves here anyway so why bother.

This past Sunday:

 

That came from that NNE swell right?

 

Gnarlful...

 

Yep. This was South Beach Miami. Not where I was but we got aboot the same.

 

Gotcha. So if I were you I'd use the Fort Pierce buoy to determine if swell is coming your way from the North. If it's a strong enough swell, it's going to make it down there i'm sure. Just do a little math in your head to try and determine about when it will arrive, which will obviously be delayed behind when it will hit Fort Pierce. I'm sure you've already thought of this and probably have had mixed results but just thinking of what i'd be doing if I were in your shoes.