Tropics: NHC following a promising system

Watching this for the SI Buoys: this could be The One:

As of 2:00 pm EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 ...
A tropical wave located about 450 miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development during the next several
days while the disturbance moves westward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 

Update from flhurricane.com. Yesterday GFS model showed it as a Cat 4 over Jacksonville. Luckily today shows,


Posts: 3592
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W

Re: East Atlantic Wave [Re: MikeC]
#97704 - Sun Jul 02 2017 07:52 AM


Morning model runs are much weaker, and a bit further west, The GFS takes it over Florida now, but very weak. (rain event, and that's about it).

GFS Parallel keeps it weak, and runs the northern Caribbean Islands starting July 9th, where it falls apart.

The 0z Euro is weak, it also has it over tha bahamas on July 12th. as well as the northern Leewards on July 9th Generally weak as well.

Canadian enters it right intot he Caribbean on July 9th.

Still plenty of time to watch this one, so I'm not terribly concerned about it now, something to watch,this coming weekend into the following week. "

 

As of 8:00 am EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 ...
A nearly stationary broad area of low pressure located about 650
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form later this week. The
disturbance is expected to begin moving west-northwestward in a day
or so, and it should continue moving in that direction through the
remainder of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Here are the spaghetti models:
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=4&year=2017&title=94

 

This is being tracked as 94L

From flhurricane.com:

"
Overnight model runs. (See "Forecast Models" on the left menu for more)

6Z GFS is still running right now, but misses the Caribbean islands to the north and then bends back west. Further north than earlier runs. Closer to Bermuda. Starts bending it out to sea around 68.3 (west of Bermuda) then hooks it out to sea.

0Z Euro misses Caribbean islands to the north, bends back west toward July 12th (where the public run ends)

6z Parallel GFS is MUCH weaker than the others, moves it much closer to the Caribbean islands, but the wave falls apart near there and remnants move north of the Caribbean.

0zCMC is slower than earlier runs, ends its run just northeast of the Bahamas on July 13th (Also misses Caribbean islands well to the north)

None of the models currently show landfall. "

 

Flhurricane:

"At 03/15Z, Invest 94L was located about about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 8.8N 32.5W, and has essentially remained stationary for over twelve hours. Minimum pressure was estimated at 1011mb, and maximum sustained winds were about 30 MPH.

94L has a well defined surface circulation, with slowly organizing convective showers and a few thunderstorms. The incipient cyclone is presently traversing a moderate shear environment, but within a cocoon of greater mid-tropospheric relative humidity, and traveling across above average SSTs. An extensive tongue of modest dry, dusty air lies just to its north to northwest, and extends from northern Africa to the eastern Caribbean. This feature is showing signs of starting to mix out, and at this time arguably remains at an optimal distance and location (Shu, S., and L. Wu 2009).

Models in the aggregate slowly take 94L into the western Atlantic, with a few runs ramping it up into a formidable hurricane. However, this early on and with little in the way of data to go by..."etc.

 

Be patient grasshopper...

 

Flhurricane:

"
Some of the midday (12z) runs show landfall in a few places now. (After not at all this morning)

12z GFS is still out to sea, hooks around Bermuda

12z Euro takes it through the Northern Lesser Antilles on Saturday evening. Weakens it greatly and winds up over the Bahamas on

GFS Parallel split it northeast of the Caribbean and then shoots along to the north and the other area brings some rain to Central Florida on July 14th. (not strong at all)

CMC has a hurricane into Cape Canaveral late on July 12th, giving DPSUP a scare.

This is a great example of how crazy the long range models are, and all that they are good for is indicating if something is worth watching. The ridging is what to watch in the longer range, rather than the position of the storm. "