Tropics: NHC following a promising system

As of 2:00 am EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 ...
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the well-defined
low pressure system located about 750 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing winds to near tropical storm force
close to the center. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and
become a little better organized over the past several hours and, if
this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a
tropical storm could form later today or on Wednesday. The low is
expected to move slowly westward today, and then move toward the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph by tonight and on Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

Disturbance 1: 70% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 ...
Early morning satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern
associated with the low pressure system located about 800 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has not changed very
much in organization. Environmental conditions, however, are
favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form
within the next 24 hours or so while the low moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

Flhurricane.com:

"
Morning models

6Z GFS develops it in the short term, keeps it well north of the Caribbean, then it rapidly starts to fall apart on July 10th, and falling apart later.

GFS Paralel is similar to the regular GFS this run, falls apart north tf the Caribbean.

0Z Euro clips the northeastern Leewards, then weakens the system, it recovers north of the Bahamas and ends the run south of North Carolina (primed for recurve) Euro is stronger than the GFS.

CMC moves it into Southeastern North Carolina on July 14th as a tropical storm, but misses the Leeward islands to the north.

In short, long range still unsure of location, but the trend is weaker or dissipating system (TUTT destroys it), short term development is very likely, perhaps even later today. (more likely tomorrow though) "

 

Word!

Flhurricane:
" Re: East Atlantic Wave [Re: MikeC]
#97714 - Tue Jul 04 2017 02:16 PM

For the midday model runs trend is for weak/dissipation, including the GFS and Euro.


And no landfall..

Euro spins it up then loses it in 72 hours.

So this afternoon trends are good that 94L won't amount to much even if it does develop tomorrow. "

 

As of 8:00 am EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 ...
Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with the
area of low pressure centered about 800 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined, but the associated
thunderstorm activity is not well organized. This system has the
potential to become a tropical depression today or Thursday before
conditions become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. The
low has been moving little, but it should begin a west-northwest
track at 10 to 15 mph today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

Flhurricane.com:

"With the exception of the CMC< Models this morning are all dissipating the system well before it has any chance to landfall, euro, GFS, GFS para all tear it apart next week. And then a lot, including CMC< take it out to sea before even getting close to land..

In short, even if 94L develops in the near term, it won't last long, conditions based on the models now are not favorable for development. It's still worth watching to see how it goes with the system, but odds are it won't do much of anything. "